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Live Β· Conservative strategy
π‘οΈ Conservative live
High conviction only. Requires edge > 8% AND narrow confidence band. Kelly capped at 10% β tiny bets, capital preservation first. Takes very few signals. Almost never wrong.
Bankroll
$8479
$-1520.54
-15.2%
vs $10000 start
Record
21W / 25L
46% win rate
Open Bets
0
peak $17627
Bankroll curve
46 settled Β· green = win Β· red = loss
π‘
Performance insight
21 wins averaging $-1521 net gain. Kelly sizing means wins pay out asymmetrically β a signal bought at 0.20 returns 4Γ on a correct call. The model targets edge, not frequency.
Today's bets
Positions opened & settled today
live
β³
No bets placed yet today
The bot fires the moment a new signal is published.
Short-term bets
Markets resolving within 30 days
Settled
21W / 25L
Win rate
46%
P&L
$-1520.54
Open positions
34
Recently settled
| Date | Market | Dir | Entry | Stake | P&L | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13 | Nuggets vs. Spurs | β YES | 0.185 | $1828 | +$8052.76 | β WON |
| Apr 13 | Nuggets vs. Spurs | β NO | 0.795 | $1459 | $-1458.98 | β LOST |
| Apr 13 | Nuggets vs. Spurs | β YES | 0.355 | $4323 | +$7854.87 | β WON |
| Apr 13 | Magic vs. Celtics | β YES | 0.835 | $1412 | $-1412.05 | β LOST |
| Apr 13 | Magic vs. Celtics | β NO | 0.240 | $1422 | +$4503.36 | β WON |
| Apr 13 | Hawks vs. Heat | β YES | 0.395 | $611 | $-610.56 | β LOST |
| Apr 13 | Hornets vs. Knicks | β NO | 0.135 | $1527 | $-1527.15 | β LOST |
| Apr 13 | Hornets vs. Knicks | β NO | 0.165 | $2667 | $-2667.20 | β LOST |
| Apr 13 | Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? | β YES | 0.078 | $2835 | $-2834.53 | β LOST |
| Apr 13 | Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? | β YES | 0.076 | $3995 | $-3994.97 | β LOST |
| Apr 13 | Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? | β NO | 0.939 | $2359 | +$154.61 | β WON |
| Apr 13 | Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? | β NO | 0.919 | $2381 | +$209.88 | β WON |
| Apr 13 | Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? | β NO | 0.964 | $2500 | +$94.71 | β WON |
| Apr 13 | Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? | β NO | 0.944 | $2500 | +$148.31 | β WON |
| Apr 13 | Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | β NO | 0.635 | $1026 | $-1025.90 | β LOST |
| Apr 13 | Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | β YES | 0.355 | $4323 | +$7854.87 | β WON |
| Apr 13 | Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | β YES | 0.355 | $4323 | +$7854.87 | β WON |
| Apr 13 | Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | β YES | 0.510 | $4323 | +$4153.69 | β WON |
| Apr 13 | Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | β YES | 0.565 | $4323 | +$3328.50 | β WON |
| Apr 13 | Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | β YES | 0.695 | $2549 | +$1118.79 | β WON |
| Apr 13 | Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? | β NO | 0.883 | $1161 | +$153.87 | β WON |
| Apr 13 | Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? | β NO | 0.935 | $2500 | +$175.23 | β WON |
| Apr 13 | Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? | β NO | 0.937 | $2500 | +$168.09 | β WON |
| Apr 13 | Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? | β NO | 0.726 | $3242 | +$1226.80 | β WON |
| Apr 13 | Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? | β NO | 0.721 | $4323 | +$1672.93 | β WON |
| Apr 13 | Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? | β YES | 0.023 | $2500 | $-2500.00 | β LOST |
| Apr 13 | Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? | β YES | 0.002 | $4323 | $-4323.22 | β LOST |
| Apr 12 | Military action against Iran ends on April 14, 2026? | β YES | 0.002 | $2500 | $-2500.00 | β LOST |
| Apr 12 | Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026? | β YES | 0.004 | $2500 | $-2500.00 | β LOST |
| Apr 12 | Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026? | β YES | 0.010 | $2500 | $-2500.00 | β LOST |
| Apr 12 | Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026? | β YES | 0.004 | $2500 | $-2500.00 | β LOST |
| Apr 12 | Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026? | β YES | 0.003 | $2500 | $-2500.00 | β LOST |
| Apr 12 | Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? | β YES | 0.004 | $2500 | $-2500.00 | β LOST |
| Apr 12 | Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? | β NO | 0.998 | $2500 | +$6.27 | β WON |
| Apr 12 | Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? | β YES | 0.003 | $2500 | $-2500.00 | β LOST |
| Apr 12 | Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? | β YES | 0.003 | $2500 | $-2500.00 | β LOST |
| Apr 12 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 12? | β YES | 0.002 | $3242 | $-3242.42 | β LOST |
| Apr 12 | Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers | β YES | 0.385 | $639 | +$1020.83 | β WON |
| Apr 12 | Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres | β YES | 0.016 | $4323 | $-4323.22 | β LOST |
| Apr 12 | Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | β YES | 0.095 | $4323 | $-4323.22 | β LOST |
| Apr 12 | UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) | β YES | 0.495 | $4323 | $-4323.22 | β LOST |
| Apr 11 | Timberwolves vs. Rockets | β YES | 0.195 | $1736 | +$7166.34 | β WON |
| Apr 11 | 76ers vs. Pacers | β NO | 0.115 | $2500 | $-2500.00 | β LOST |
| Apr 11 | 76ers vs. Pacers | β NO | 0.105 | $2500 | $-2500.00 | β LOST |
| Apr 11 | 76ers vs. Pacers | β NO | 0.105 | $2500 | $-2500.00 | β LOST |
| Apr 11 | Timberwolves vs. Rockets | β YES | 0.195 | $1847 | +$7626.56 | β WON |
Long-term bets
Markets resolving in 30+ days
Open positions
51
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Disclaimer