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Live Β· Conservative strategy

πŸ›‘οΈ Conservative live

High conviction only. Requires edge > 8% AND narrow confidence band. Kelly capped at 10% β€” tiny bets, capital preservation first. Takes very few signals. Almost never wrong.

Bankroll
$8479
$-1520.54 -15.2% vs $10000 start
Record
21W / 25L
46% win rate
Open Bets
0
peak $17627
Bankroll curve
46 settled Β· green = win Β· red = loss
πŸ’‘
Performance insight

21 wins averaging $-1521 net gain. Kelly sizing means wins pay out asymmetrically β€” a signal bought at 0.20 returns 4Γ— on a correct call. The model targets edge, not frequency.

Today's bets
Positions opened & settled today
live
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No bets placed yet today
The bot fires the moment a new signal is published.
Short-term bets
Markets resolving within 30 days
≀ 30 days
Settled
21W / 25L
Win rate
46%
P&L
$-1520.54
Open positions 34
Market Dir Resolves Entry Edge Stake Max Win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? ↑ YES Apr 30 0.165 25.5% $3242 +$16,409
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? ↑ YES Apr 30 0.205 6.5% $1724 +$6,687
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? ↑ YES Apr 15 0.095 8.5% $4274 +$40,717
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? ↑ YES Apr 30 0.330 8.0% $1575 +$3,205
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? ↓ NO Apr 15 0.840 13.0% $4182 +$797
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 me… ↓ NO Apr 29 0.018 6.2% $4323 +$242,718
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 … ↑ YES Apr 29 0.004 4.6% $4323 +$1,230,884
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? ↑ YES Apr 15 0.105 12.9% $2500 +$21,310
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 … ↑ YES Apr 29 0.005 16.0% $2500 +$553,056
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? ↑ YES May 01 0.005 16.0% $2500 +$553,056
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April… ↑ YES Apr 30 0.003 18.2% $2500 +$997,500
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? ↓ NO May 01 0.983 15.4% $2500 +$45
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? ↓ NO Apr 15 0.299 11.7% $1396 +$3,272
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 me… ↓ NO Apr 29 0.020 17.9% $2500 +$125,705
Trump out as President by April 30? ↓ NO Apr 30 0.985 14.9% $2500 +$39
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? ↓ NO Apr 30 0.971 13.8% $2500 +$76
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? ↑ YES Apr 30 0.051 14.9% $2500 +$47,005
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? ↑ YES Apr 30 0.085 14.2% $2500 +$26,912
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? ↑ YES Apr 12 0.199 10.5% $1658 +$6,694
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 … ↓ NO Apr 29 0.993 17.0% $2500 +$19
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 … ↑ YES Apr 29 0.005 16.0% $2500 +$553,056
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 m… ↑ YES Apr 29 0.009 16.9% $2500 +$291,618
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? ↑ YES Apr 15 0.105 13.6% $2500 +$21,310
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? ↑ YES May 01 0.005 16.0% $2500 +$553,056
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April… ↑ YES Apr 30 0.003 16.9% $2500 +$997,500
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? ↑ YES May 01 0.205 10.6% $1626 +$6,306
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? ↓ NO May 01 0.983 14.7% $2500 +$45
Netanyahu out by April 30? ↑ YES Apr 30 0.014 15.0% $2500 +$176,071
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? ↓ NO Apr 15 0.973 14.4% $2500 +$69
Trump out as President by April 30? ↓ NO Apr 30 0.985 14.9% $2500 +$39
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 … ↑ YES Apr 29 0.005 18.4% $2500 +$553,056
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 m… ↓ NO Apr 29 0.993 16.4% $2500 +$19
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 … ↓ NO Apr 29 0.994 15.8% $2500 +$16
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? ↑ YES Apr 15 0.105 13.6% $2500 +$21,310
Recently settled
Date Market Dir Entry Stake P&L Result
Apr 13 Nuggets vs. Spurs ↑ YES 0.185 $1828 +$8052.76 βœ“ WON
Apr 13 Nuggets vs. Spurs ↓ NO 0.795 $1459 $-1458.98 βœ— LOST
Apr 13 Nuggets vs. Spurs ↑ YES 0.355 $4323 +$7854.87 βœ“ WON
Apr 13 Magic vs. Celtics ↑ YES 0.835 $1412 $-1412.05 βœ— LOST
Apr 13 Magic vs. Celtics ↓ NO 0.240 $1422 +$4503.36 βœ“ WON
Apr 13 Hawks vs. Heat ↑ YES 0.395 $611 $-610.56 βœ— LOST
Apr 13 Hornets vs. Knicks ↓ NO 0.135 $1527 $-1527.15 βœ— LOST
Apr 13 Hornets vs. Knicks ↓ NO 0.165 $2667 $-2667.20 βœ— LOST
Apr 13 Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↑ YES 0.078 $2835 $-2834.53 βœ— LOST
Apr 13 Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↑ YES 0.076 $3995 $-3994.97 βœ— LOST
Apr 13 Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↓ NO 0.939 $2359 +$154.61 βœ“ WON
Apr 13 Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↓ NO 0.919 $2381 +$209.88 βœ“ WON
Apr 13 Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↓ NO 0.964 $2500 +$94.71 βœ“ WON
Apr 13 Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↓ NO 0.944 $2500 +$148.31 βœ“ WON
Apr 13 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↓ NO 0.635 $1026 $-1025.90 βœ— LOST
Apr 13 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↑ YES 0.355 $4323 +$7854.87 βœ“ WON
Apr 13 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↑ YES 0.355 $4323 +$7854.87 βœ“ WON
Apr 13 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↑ YES 0.510 $4323 +$4153.69 βœ“ WON
Apr 13 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↑ YES 0.565 $4323 +$3328.50 βœ“ WON
Apr 13 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↑ YES 0.695 $2549 +$1118.79 βœ“ WON
Apr 13 Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↓ NO 0.883 $1161 +$153.87 βœ“ WON
Apr 13 Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↓ NO 0.935 $2500 +$175.23 βœ“ WON
Apr 13 Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↓ NO 0.937 $2500 +$168.09 βœ“ WON
Apr 13 Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↓ NO 0.726 $3242 +$1226.80 βœ“ WON
Apr 13 Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↓ NO 0.721 $4323 +$1672.93 βœ“ WON
Apr 13 Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↑ YES 0.023 $2500 $-2500.00 βœ— LOST
Apr 13 Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↑ YES 0.002 $4323 $-4323.22 βœ— LOST
Apr 12 Military action against Iran ends on April 14, 2026? ↑ YES 0.002 $2500 $-2500.00 βœ— LOST
Apr 12 Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026? ↑ YES 0.004 $2500 $-2500.00 βœ— LOST
Apr 12 Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026? ↑ YES 0.010 $2500 $-2500.00 βœ— LOST
Apr 12 Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026? ↑ YES 0.004 $2500 $-2500.00 βœ— LOST
Apr 12 Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026? ↑ YES 0.003 $2500 $-2500.00 βœ— LOST
Apr 12 Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? ↑ YES 0.004 $2500 $-2500.00 βœ— LOST
Apr 12 Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? ↓ NO 0.998 $2500 +$6.27 βœ“ WON
Apr 12 Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↑ YES 0.003 $2500 $-2500.00 βœ— LOST
Apr 12 Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↑ YES 0.003 $2500 $-2500.00 βœ— LOST
Apr 12 Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 12? ↑ YES 0.002 $3242 $-3242.42 βœ— LOST
Apr 12 Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers ↑ YES 0.385 $639 +$1020.83 βœ“ WON
Apr 12 Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres ↑ YES 0.016 $4323 $-4323.22 βœ— LOST
Apr 12 Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers ↑ YES 0.095 $4323 $-4323.22 βœ— LOST
Apr 12 UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) ↑ YES 0.495 $4323 $-4323.22 βœ— LOST
Apr 11 Timberwolves vs. Rockets ↑ YES 0.195 $1736 +$7166.34 βœ“ WON
Apr 11 76ers vs. Pacers ↓ NO 0.115 $2500 $-2500.00 βœ— LOST
Apr 11 76ers vs. Pacers ↓ NO 0.105 $2500 $-2500.00 βœ— LOST
Apr 11 76ers vs. Pacers ↓ NO 0.105 $2500 $-2500.00 βœ— LOST
Apr 11 Timberwolves vs. Rockets ↑ YES 0.195 $1847 +$7626.56 βœ“ WON
Long-term bets
Markets resolving in 30+ days
30+ days
Open positions 51
Market Dir Resolves Entry Edge Stake Max Win
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? ↓ NO Jul 01 0.827 7.3% $2206 +$461
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? ↓ NO May 27 0.345 49.5% $4323 +$8,208
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? ↓ NO Jul 01 0.829 12.1% $3697 +$765
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↓ NO Jul 20 0.848 3.2% $1073 +$192
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? ↓ NO Jul 01 0.841 9.9% $3201 +$605
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.147 3.3% $1138 +$6,602
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.003 16.2% $2500 +$997,500
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.005 16.0% $2500 +$553,056
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.005 16.3% $2500 +$553,056
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election ↑ YES Jun 03 0.005 16.0% $2500 +$553,056
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↑ YES Oct 04 0.004 19.6% $2500 +$711,786
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.003 16.2% $2500 +$997,500
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.003 16.2% $2500 +$997,500
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.005 16.0% $2500 +$553,056
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? ↑ YES Jul 01 0.005 16.0% $2500 +$553,056
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? ↓ NO May 31 0.914 11.9% $2500 +$237
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? ↑ YES May 31 0.195 11.6% $1847 +$7,627
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? ↑ YES Jul 01 0.005 16.0% $2500 +$553,056
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? ↑ YES Jul 01 0.148 10.7% $2121 +$12,212
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.003 16.2% $2500 +$997,500
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.003 18.2% $2500 +$997,500
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? ↑ YES May 27 0.855 11.0% $2218 +$376
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.005 16.0% $2500 +$553,056
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? ↑ YES Jul 01 0.004 16.8% $2500 +$711,786
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.003 16.2% $2500 +$997,500
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↓ NO Jul 20 0.996 16.0% $2500 +$11
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.006 15.9% $2500 +$452,045
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? ↑ YES Jun 30 0.946 15.1% $2500 +$144
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.017 15.1% $2500 +$149,015
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.024 14.7% $2500 +$101,667
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? ↑ YES Jun 30 0.036 14.2% $2500 +$67,923
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.003 16.2% $2500 +$997,500
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.003 16.2% $2500 +$997,500
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? ↑ YES Jul 01 0.148 10.7% $2121 +$12,212
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? ↑ YES Jul 01 0.005 16.0% $2500 +$553,056
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.003 16.5% $2500 +$997,500
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.005 16.0% $2500 +$553,056
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↓ NO Jul 20 0.911 11.7% $2500 +$244
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.005 16.0% $2500 +$553,056
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? ↑ YES Jul 01 0.004 16.1% $2500 +$711,786
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.003 16.2% $2500 +$997,500
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.003 16.2% $2500 +$997,500
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.006 15.9% $2500 +$452,045
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election ↑ YES Jun 03 0.005 16.0% $2500 +$553,056
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? ↑ YES Jun 07 0.016 15.2% $2500 +$153,750
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? ↑ YES Jun 30 0.946 15.2% $2500 +$143
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.017 15.8% $2500 +$149,015
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.023 14.6% $2500 +$108,611
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? ↑ YES Jun 30 0.036 14.9% $2500 +$67,923
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? ↑ YES Jul 01 0.148 10.8% $2137 +$12,353
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? ↑ YES Jun 30 0.115 14.0% $2500 +$19,239
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