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Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?

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politics · resolves 2026-04-15

Bot positions on this market
Conservative NO entry 0.840
4182 shares +$796.51
Conservative YES entry 0.105
2500 shares -$2500.00
Conservative YES entry 0.105
2500 shares -$2500.00
Conservative YES entry 0.105
2500 shares -$2500.00
Balanced NO entry 0.840
1487 shares +$283.29
Balanced YES entry 0.105
1487 shares -$1487.26
Balanced YES entry 0.105
1487 shares -$1487.26
Balanced YES entry 0.105
1487 shares -$1487.26
Aggressive NO entry 0.840
1294 shares +$246.52
Aggressive YES entry 0.105
1338 shares -$1338.03
Aggressive YES entry 0.105
1338 shares -$1338.03
Aggressive YES entry 0.105
1338 shares -$1338.03

Signals on this market

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↓ NO ✓ WON edge 2026-04-11 21:25 UTC

No current US military operations against Iran. Trump not president until Jan 2025 earliest. Highly improbable for ops to start post-inauguration and end by Apr 15. Market at 16% overprices drastically.

entry
0.840
edge 13.0%
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale 2026-04-10 14:58 UTC

Orderbook imbalance 0.877 signals strong YES-side whale pressure; thin book but liquidity $305k; no news to contradict.

entry
0.105
edge 12.9%
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale 2026-04-10 14:11 UTC

High orderbook imbalance (0.803) indicates whale bid pressure on YES amid thin top levels. No news; market price 0.105 suggests underpricing.

entry
0.105
edge 13.6%
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale 2026-04-10 13:24 UTC

Whale-driven yes imbalance of 0.758 on thin book (bids 0.100@0, asks 0.110@0); no news or conflicting info; vague resolution on non-existent ops.

entry
0.105
edge 13.6%