Public scoreboard

Every published signal is timestamped on-chain via our public Polymarket wallet before the underlying market resolves. This is the source of truth — full calibration, hit rate, and Brier score across the complete history. No cherry-picking. No retroactive edits.

Published

136

Resolved

Hit rate

40%

% of resolved signals correct

Avg Brier score i Mean (P̂ − outcome)² across all resolved signals. Perfect = 0. Random = 0.25. Lower is better.

0.127

lower = better calibrated

🎯

How Brier scoring works

Score = 0

Perfect prediction every time

Score < 0.20

Expert-level calibration

Score = 0.25

Random coin-flip baseline

Score = 1.0

Perfectly wrong — worst possible

Brier score = mean of (P̂ − outcome)². Our model predicts a probability P̂ before the market resolves. If P̂ = 0.85 and the outcome is YES (1), score = (0.85 − 1)² = 0.0225 — excellent. Lower is better. We publish every score so you can verify calibration independently.

Performance by category

Category	Published	Resolved	Hit rate	Avg Brier i Lower = better. 0 = perfect, 0.25 = random.
⚽ sports	85	49	47%	0.154
🗳️ politics	11	9	33%	0.034
🌍 geopolitical	18	16	38%	0.156
💰 finance	13	13	31%	0.025
₿ crypto	6	6	33%	0.147
📊 other	3	3	0%	0.227

— categories with no resolved signals are not shown. More data accumulates as markets settle.

Resolved history

Resolved	Market	Dir	Entry i Market price when signal was published. Buy at or below this price.	P̂ i AI's calibrated probability estimate that YES resolves true. Used to calculate Brier score.	Outcome	Brier i (P̂ − outcome)². Lower is better. <0.20 = great. 0.25 = random. Color: green <0.20, red >0.40.
2026-06-04	politics Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	↑ YES	0.005	0.164	NO ✗	0.027
2026-06-04	politics Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	↑ YES	0.005	0.164	NO ✗	0.027
2026-06-01	geopolitical US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	↑ YES	0.195	0.311	NO ✗	0.097
2026-05-24	sports Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	↑ YES	0.016	0.168	NO ✗	0.028
2026-05-20	sports Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	↓ NO	0.345	0.160	YES ✗	0.706
2026-05-20	sports Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	↑ YES	0.855	0.745	YES ✓	0.065
2026-05-12	other Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	↑ YES	0.165	0.420	NO ✗	0.176
2026-05-12	other Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	↑ YES	0.016	0.673	NO ✗	0.454
2026-05-12	sports Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	↑ YES	0.005	0.164	NO ✗	0.027
2026-05-12	sports Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	↑ YES	0.005	0.164	NO ✗	0.027
2026-05-12	sports Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	↑ YES	0.005	0.164	NO ✗	0.027
2026-05-09	geopolitical Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	↓ NO	0.914	0.206	YES ✗	0.630
2026-05-09	geopolitical Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	↑ YES	0.115	0.255	YES ✓	0.555
2026-05-04	sports Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?	↑ YES	0.004	0.171	NO ✗	0.029
2026-05-04	sports Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?	↑ YES	0.004	0.164	NO ✗	0.027
2026-05-01	crypto Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	↑ YES	0.005	0.164	NO ✗	0.027
2026-05-01	crypto Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	↑ YES	0.205	0.311	NO ✗	0.097
2026-05-01	other Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	↑ YES	0.085	0.227	NO ✗	0.052
2026-05-01	crypto Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?	↓ NO	0.983	0.164	NO ✓	0.027
2026-05-01	crypto Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?	↓ NO	0.983	0.171	NO ✓	0.029
2026-05-01	politics Trump out as President by April 30?	↓ NO	0.985	0.164	NO ✓	0.027
2026-05-01	politics Trump out as President by April 30?	↓ NO	0.985	0.164	NO ✓	0.027
2026-05-01	geopolitical Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	↑ YES	0.051	0.199	NO ✗	0.040
2026-05-01	geopolitical Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	↓ NO	0.971	0.168	NO ✓	0.028
2026-05-01	finance Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	↑ YES	0.003	0.171	NO ✗	0.029
2026-05-01	politics Netanyahu out by April 30?	↑ YES	0.014	0.164	NO ✗	0.027
2026-05-01	finance Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	↑ YES	0.003	0.185	NO ✗	0.034
2026-05-01	crypto Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	↑ YES	0.005	0.164	NO ✗	0.027
2026-04-29	finance Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	↓ NO	0.500	0.020	NO ✓	0.000
2026-04-29	finance Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	↑ YES	0.005	0.164	NO ✗	0.027
2026-04-29	finance Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	↑ YES	0.005	0.164	NO ✗	0.027
2026-04-29	finance Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	↑ YES	0.004	0.050	NO ✗	0.002
2026-04-29	finance Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	↓ NO	0.993	0.171	NO ✓	0.029
2026-04-29	finance Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	↑ YES	0.009	0.178	NO ✗	0.032
2026-04-29	finance Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	↓ NO	0.993	0.178	NO ✓	0.032
2026-04-29	finance Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	↓ NO	0.020	0.801	YES ✗	0.040
2026-04-29	finance Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	↓ NO	0.018	0.920	YES ✗	0.006
2026-04-29	finance Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	↓ NO	0.994	0.164	NO ✓	0.027
2026-04-29	finance Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	↑ YES	0.005	0.189	NO ✗	0.036
2026-04-25	sports Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	↓ NO	0.299	0.584	YES ✗	0.173
2026-04-25	sports Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	↑ YES	0.946	0.794	YES ✓	0.042
2026-04-25	sports Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	↑ YES	0.946	0.794	YES ✓	0.042
2026-04-16	geopolitical Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	↑ YES	0.205	0.270	YES ✓	0.533
2026-04-16	geopolitical Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	↑ YES	0.330	0.410	YES ✓	0.348
2026-04-16	geopolitical Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	↓ NO	0.973	0.171	NO ✓	0.029
2026-04-16	geopolitical Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	↑ YES	0.095	0.180	NO ✗	0.032
2026-04-16	politics Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	↑ YES	0.105	0.241	NO ✗	0.058
2026-04-16	politics Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	↓ NO	0.840	0.030	NO ✓	0.001
2026-04-16	politics Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	↑ YES	0.105	0.241	NO ✗	0.058
2026-04-16	politics Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	↑ YES	0.105	0.234	NO ✗	0.055
2026-04-13	sports Nuggets vs. Spurs	↑ YES	0.355	0.650	YES ✓	0.122
2026-04-13	sports Nuggets vs. Spurs	↑ YES	0.185	0.270	YES ✓	0.533
2026-04-13	sports Nuggets vs. Spurs	↓ NO	0.795	0.150	YES ✗	0.722
2026-04-13	sports Magic vs. Celtics	↑ YES	0.835	0.880	NO ✗	0.774
2026-04-13	sports Magic vs. Celtics	↓ NO	0.240	0.700	NO ✓	0.490
2026-04-13	sports Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?	↑ YES	0.695	0.820	YES ✓	0.032
2026-04-13	sports Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament?	↑ YES	0.076	0.140	NO ✗	0.020
2026-04-13	sports Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament?	↑ YES	0.078	0.140	NO ✗	0.020
2026-04-13	sports Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?	↓ NO	0.919	0.040	NO ✓	0.002
2026-04-13	sports Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?	↓ NO	0.944	0.189	NO ✓	0.036
2026-04-13	sports Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?	↓ NO	0.964	0.175	NO ✓	0.030
2026-04-13	sports Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?	↓ NO	0.939	0.030	NO ✓	0.001
2026-04-13	sports Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament?	↓ NO	0.883	0.080	NO ✓	0.006
2026-04-13	sports Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament?	↓ NO	0.937	0.182	NO ✓	0.033
2026-04-13	sports Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament?	↓ NO	0.935	0.192	NO ✓	0.037
2026-04-13	sports Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?	↑ YES	0.355	0.850	YES ✓	0.023
2026-04-13	sports Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?	↑ YES	0.510	0.800	YES ✓	0.040
2026-04-13	sports Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?	↑ YES	0.565	0.850	YES ✓	0.023
2026-04-13	sports Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?	↑ YES	0.355	0.720	YES ✓	0.078
2026-04-13	sports Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?	↓ NO	0.635	0.310	YES ✗	0.476
2026-04-13	sports Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament?	↓ NO	0.721	0.025	NO ✓	0.001
2026-04-13	sports Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament?	↓ NO	0.726	0.025	NO ✓	0.001
2026-04-13	sports Hornets vs. Knicks	↓ NO	0.135	0.810	YES ✗	0.036
2026-04-13	sports Hornets vs. Knicks	↓ NO	0.165	0.750	YES ✗	0.063
2026-04-13	sports Hawks vs. Heat	↑ YES	0.395	0.440	NO ✗	0.194
2026-04-13	sports Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament?	↑ YES	0.023	0.169	NO ✗	0.029
2026-04-13	sports Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament?	↑ YES	0.002	0.060	NO ✗	0.004
2026-04-12	geopolitical Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	↑ YES	0.004	0.178	NO ✗	0.032
2026-04-12	geopolitical Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	↓ NO	0.998	0.164	NO ✓	0.027
2026-04-12	geopolitical Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026?	↑ YES	0.003	0.164	NO ✗	0.027
2026-04-12	geopolitical Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026?	↑ YES	0.004	0.178	NO ✗	0.032
2026-04-12	geopolitical Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026?	↑ YES	0.010	0.164	NO ✗	0.027
2026-04-12	geopolitical Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026?	↑ YES	0.004	0.164	NO ✗	0.027
2026-04-12	geopolitical Military action against Iran ends on April 14, 2026?	↑ YES	0.002	0.164	NO ✗	0.027
2026-04-12	sports Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament?	↑ YES	0.003	0.171	NO ✗	0.029
2026-04-12	sports Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament?	↑ YES	0.003	0.178	NO ✗	0.032
2026-04-12	crypto Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 12?	↑ YES	0.002	0.820	NO ✗	0.672
2026-04-12	sports Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers	↑ YES	0.385	0.420	YES ✓	0.336
2026-04-12	sports Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	↑ YES	0.095	0.420	NO ✗	0.176
2026-04-12	sports Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres	↑ YES	0.016	0.320	NO ✗	0.102
2026-04-12	sports UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	↑ YES	0.495	0.820	NO ✗	0.672
2026-04-11	sports Timberwolves vs. Rockets	↑ YES	0.195	0.304	YES ✓	0.484
2026-04-11	sports Timberwolves vs. Rockets	↑ YES	0.195	0.311	YES ✓	0.475
2026-04-11	sports 76ers vs. Pacers	↓ NO	0.105	0.724	YES ✗	0.076
2026-04-11	sports 76ers vs. Pacers	↓ NO	0.115	0.724	YES ✗	0.076
2026-04-11	sports 76ers vs. Pacers	↓ NO	0.105	0.752	YES ✗	0.062