finance · resolves 2026-04-29
Calibration model puts NO at 2.0% vs market 50.0% — 48.0% drift after isotonic correction of original raw 5.0%.
Orderbook imbalance 0.913 indicates strong bid-side pressure (informed buying); true P(50+ bps Fed cut Apr 2026) ~5% >> market 0.35%; irrelevant news.
Extreme orderbook imbalance (0.980) indicates heavy bid-side liquidity, suggesting whale pressure on YES despite ultra-low price & high liquidity ($498k). Thin news; long-dated event.
Whale imbalance 0.986 (heavy yes bids) at ultra-low price 0.0045; thin book but trigger indicates potential undervaluation for long-term Fed cut market.
Extreme orderbook imbalance (0.991) on YES bids indicates whale accumulation, potential undervaluation vs market price of 0.45%; long-dated tail risk pulled toward 50.