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Calibration model puts NO at 8.3% vs market 16.1% — 7.7% drift after isotonic correction of original raw 12.2%.
Orderbook imbalance -0.87 on $658,379 24h volume signals informed selling pressure.
Calibration model puts NO at 2.0% vs market 50.0% — 48.0% drift after isotonic correction of original raw 5.0%.
Calibration model puts NO at 4.1% vs market 12.8% — 8.6% drift after isotonic correction of original raw 10.0%.
Calibration model puts YES at 67.3% vs market 1.6% — 65.8% drift after isotonic correction of original raw 42.0%.
US ships transited Hormuz for mine-clearing [487]; Iran can't find own mines [486]; Trump: reopen soon w/ talks [506]. Positive developments boost P(normal by Apr30).
Scheffler world #1, 2024 Masters winner; dominant form implies ~14% chance vs 7.75% price. Extreme ask imbalance likely overreaction.
Imbalance 0.980 shows whale YES buy pumping price to 27% but Cameron Young (~OWGR 25-30) unlikely top favorite for 2026 Masters; true odds ~+4000 (2.5%).
Orderbook imbalance 0.797 signals strong bid-side pressure, indicating potential whale buying YES at 39.5% (undervalued)
Market at 0.15% vs realistic ~80% prob given BTC's long-term bullish trend, halving cycles, and historical growth; 76k in Apr 2026 not ambitious from current levels.
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Every signal is committed to Polygon before the market resolves. No retroactive edits possible — the blockchain is the record.
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