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How to act on a signal — 30-second guide
1
Open Polymarket
Click "Trade on Polymarket" on any signal card to jump directly to the market.
2
Buy at or below entry
Signal says entry 0.34? Buy Yes shares at ≤ $0.34. Above that, the edge shrinks.
3
Size with Kelly
Kelly 5% with a $1,000 bankroll = risk $50 on this trade. Never exceed the Kelly fraction.
4
Wait for resolution
Polymarket markets resolve at expiry. Winning Yes shares pay $1 each, losing pay $0.
⚠️ Research signals only — not financial advice. See disclaimer.
All ✓ Resolved ⏳ Open sports politics geopolitical finance crypto other
50 signals · sorted by newest
↓ NO LATEST edge ⚽ sports Apr 27 · 07:04 UTC
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Calibration model puts NO at 8.3% vs market 16.1% — 7.7% drift after isotonic correction of original raw 12.2%.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.840
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
7.7%
mispricing
Bots 🎯 $600
↓ NO whale ⚽ sports Apr 27 · 07:04 UTC
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Orderbook imbalance -0.87 on $658,379 24h volume signals informed selling pressure.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.840
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
3.8%
mispricing
Bots 🎯 +$800
↓ NO edge ⚽ sports Apr 25 · 14:22 UTC
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Calibration model puts NO at 4.1% vs market 12.8% — 8.6% drift after isotonic correction of original raw 10.0%.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.873
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
8.6%
mispricing
Bots 🎯 $800
↑ YES ✗ LOST edge 📊 other Apr 25 · 14:22 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Calibration model puts YES at 67.3% vs market 1.6% — 65.8% drift after isotonic correction of original raw 42.0%.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.016
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
65.8%
mispricing
Bots 🎯 -$800
↑ YES ✗ LOST news 📊 other Apr 12 · 08:43 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

US ships transited Hormuz for mine-clearing [487]; Iran can't find own mines [486]; Trump: reopen soon w/ talks [506]. Positive developments boost P(normal by Apr30).

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.165
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
25.5%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$3,242
↑ YES ✗ LOST edge ⚽ sports Apr 12 · 08:04 UTC
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Scheffler world #1, 2024 Masters winner; dominant form implies ~14% chance vs 7.75% price. Extreme ask imbalance likely overreaction.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.078
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
6.3%
mispricing
Bots ⚡ -$2,053 🔥 -$1,170 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$2,835
↓ NO ✓ WON whale ⚽ sports Apr 12 · 07:49 UTC
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Imbalance 0.980 shows whale YES buy pumping price to 27% but Cameron Young (~OWGR 25-30) unlikely top favorite for 2026 Masters; true odds ~+4000 (2.5%).

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.726
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
24.9%
mispricing
Bots ⚡ +$777 🔥 +$506 ⚖️ +$563 🛡️ +$1,227
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale ⚽ sports Apr 12 · 07:21 UTC
Hawks vs. Heat

Orderbook imbalance 0.797 signals strong bid-side pressure, indicating potential whale buying YES at 39.5% (undervalued)

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.395
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
4.5%
mispricing
Bots ⚡ -$644 🔥 -$252 🛡️ -$611
↑ YES ✗ LOST edge ₿ crypto Apr 12 · 07:16 UTC
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 12?

Market at 0.15% vs realistic ~80% prob given BTC's long-term bullish trend, halving cycles, and historical growth; 76k in Apr 2026 not ambitious from current levels.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.002
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
81.8%
mispricing
Bots 🔮 -$2,000 ₿ -$2,500 ⚡ -$2,053 🛡️ -$3,242
↓ NO ✓ WON whale ⚽ sports Apr 12 · 07:13 UTC
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Heavy orderbook imbalance (-0.834) suggests informed selling on YES, implying lower true probability than market price (0.117).

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.883
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
3.7%
mispricing
Bots ⚡ +$162 🔥 +$63 🛡️ +$154
↓ NO ✗ LOST whale ⚽ sports Apr 12 · 06:47 UTC
Hornets vs. Knicks

Large negative orderbook imbalance (-0.760) suggests informed selling of YES shares, indicating true P(YES) < market price

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.135
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
5.5%
mispricing
Bots ⚡ -$1,612 🔥 -$630 ⚖️ -$876 🛡️ -$1,527
↑ YES ✓ WON whale ⚽ sports Apr 12 · 06:38 UTC
Nuggets vs. Spurs

High orderbook imbalance (0.774) signals heavy informed buying pressure on YES shares at 18.5%, indicating undervaluation.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.185
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
8.5%
mispricing
Bots ⚡ +$8,498 🔥 +$3,323 ⚖️ +$4,617 🛡️ +$8,053
↓ NO whale ⚽ sports Apr 12 · 05:04 UTC
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Large negative orderbook imbalance (-0.836) suggests informed selling of YES, indicating overpricing at 17.3%; Spurs unlikely 2026 champs given current roster trajectory.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.827
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
7.3%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $683 ⚖️ $949 🛡️ $2206
↑ YES ✓ WON whale 🌍 geopolitical Apr 12 · 04:50 UTC
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Orderbook imbalance 0.783 shows strong bid pressure, indicating potential informed whale buying on YES vs market price 20.5%

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.205
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
6.5%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 +$2,070 ⚖️ +$2,875 🛡️ +$6,687
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale ⚽ sports Apr 12 · 04:03 UTC
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Heavy negative orderbook imbalance (-0.756) indicates whale selling YES, pushing price to 7.55%; Scheffler's #1 ranking & recent Masters win imply ~14% true prob for 2026.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.076
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
6.5%
mispricing
Bots ⚡ -$2,053 🔥 -$1,236 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$3,995
↑ YES ✗ LOST edge ⚽ sports Apr 12 · 03:38 UTC
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres

MLB reg season win probs never <20%; 1.5% impossible even for Rockies underdog vs Padres. Realistic ~32%. Thin book explains misprice.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.016
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
30.4%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$2,393 ⚖️ -$2,479 🛡️ -$4,323
↓ NO ✓ WON whale ⚽ sports Apr 12 · 03:24 UTC
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Orderbook imbalance -0.817 indicates whale selling pressure on YES. Market at 6.15% overprices Rose's 2026 Masters win prob (~3%) given age 46 & competition.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.939
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
3.1%
mispricing
Bots ⚡ +$122 🔥 +$48 🛡️ +$155
↓ NO ✗ LOST whale ⚽ sports Apr 12 · 03:07 UTC
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

65.5% price absurdly high for Arsenal 2025-26 EPL win (typical preseason odds ~15%); heavy sell imbalance (-0.79) indicates informed selling

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.345
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
49.5%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$4,323
↓ NO ✓ WON edge ⚽ sports Apr 12 · 02:37 UTC
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament?

0.28 price wildly overstates Cameron Young's chances (~2.5%) to win 2026 Masters; typical futures odds for him are 40-1+ (2-3%). Bid imbalance may reflect whale pump, not fundamentals.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.721
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
25.4%
mispricing
Bots ⚡ +$794 🔥 +$518 ⚖️ +$576 🛡️ +$1,673
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale ⚽ sports Apr 12 · 02:31 UTC
Magic vs. Celtics

Orderbook imbalance of 0.798 signals whale buying YES, indicating informed accumulation and potential mispricing at 0.835.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.835
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
4.5%
mispricing
Bots ⚡ -$1,118 🔥 -$437 🛡️ -$1,412
↓ NO ✗ LOST news ⚽ sports Apr 12 · 02:03 UTC
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Fresh news [390,384]: McIlroy struggles in Rd3 but shares lead with surging Cameron Young entering final round; market overprices Rory's win prob vs typical co-leader odds (~25-30%).

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.635
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
5.5%
mispricing
Bots ⚡ -$812 🔥 -$318 ⚖️ -$441 🛡️ -$1,026
↑ YES ✗ LOST edge ⚽ sports Apr 12 · 01:52 UTC
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Market at 9.5% severely underprices Rangers MLB win prob vs Dodgers; priors for underdog in reg season game ~40-45% given team strengths.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.095
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
32.5%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$2,393 ⚖️ -$2,479 🛡️ -$4,323
↑ YES ✗ LOST edge 🌍 geopolitical Apr 12 · 01:47 UTC
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?

Long 18mo horizon favors eventual de-escalation; current 9.5% price overly pessimistic amid escalations but ignores political shifts (e.g., US election).

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.095
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
8.5%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,323 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$4,274
↓ NO edge ⚽ sports Apr 12 · 01:03 UTC
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Spurs rebuilding with Wemby but projected ~35 wins 25-26; sportsbooks have 2026 futures ~20-50/1 (2-5%); 17% price reflects hype, not reality. Imbalance may be noise.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.829
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
12.1%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1144 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $3697
↑ YES ✓ WON news ⚽ sports Apr 12 · 01:01 UTC
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Golf Digest [358]: Rory McIlroy has built a monster lead in bid for second green jacket at 2026 Masters; USA Today [369] live updates confirm strong position late tournament.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.355
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
36.5%
mispricing
Bots ⚡ +$3,730 🔥 +$2,431 ⚖️ +$2,702 🛡️ +$7,855
Bots 🔥 +$992 ⚖️ +$1,378 🛡️ +$3,205
↓ NO ✗ LOST whale ⚽ sports Apr 12 · 00:06 UTC
Nuggets vs. Spurs

Large orderbook imbalance (-0.790) indicates strong sell pressure on YES (buy NO), suggesting informed whale believes true P(YES) < market 20.5%. Thin book but significant skew.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.795
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
5.5%
mispricing
Bots ⚡ -$1,155 🔥 -$452 ⚖️ -$627 🛡️ -$1,459
↓ NO whale ⚽ sports Apr 12 · 00:04 UTC
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Extreme orderbook imbalance (-0.957) signals heavy informed selling of YES shares, implying lower probability than market price.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.848
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
3.2%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $332 🛡️ $1073
↓ NO ✗ LOST edge ⚽ sports Apr 12 · 00:02 UTC
Hornets vs. Knicks

Distant 2026 NBA game; high uncertainty from rosters/trades/injuries discounts heavy favorite prob from 83.5% to 75%. Price delta trigger suggests overreaction.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.165
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
8.5%
mispricing
Bots ⚡ -$2,053 🔥 -$825 ⚖️ -$1,147 🛡️ -$2,667
↑ YES ✓ WON news ⚽ sports Apr 12 · 00:00 UTC
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?

McIlroy leads by 6 shots after Round 3 per Reuters [331] & NYT [347]; historically dominant position at Masters.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.355
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
49.5%
mispricing
Bots ⚡ +$3,730 🔥 +$2,431 ⚖️ +$2,702 🛡️ +$7,855
↓ NO ✓ WON whale ⚽ sports Apr 11 · 21:52 UTC
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Orderbook imbalance -0.857 indicates heavy selling pressure, thin bids at 0.074@0; suggests informed whale bet against Rose winning 2026 Masters

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.919
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
4.1%
mispricing
Bots ⚡ +$166 🔥 +$65 🛡️ +$210
↓ NO ✓ WON whale ⚽ sports Apr 11 · 21:49 UTC
Magic vs. Celtics

Large negative orderbook imbalance (-0.748) suggests informed selling of YES shares.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.240
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
6.0%
mispricing
Bots ⚡ +$3,564 🔥 +$1,394 ⚖️ +$1,937 🛡️ +$4,503
↓ NO ✓ WON edge 🗳️ politics Apr 11 · 21:25 UTC
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?

No current US military operations against Iran. Trump not president until Jan 2025 earliest. Highly improbable for ops to start post-inauguration and end by Apr 15. Market at 16% overprices drastically.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.840
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
13.0%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 +$247 ⚖️ +$283 🛡️ +$797
↑ YES ✓ WON whale ⚽ sports Apr 11 · 21:20 UTC
Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Significant buy-side order book imbalance (0.757) suggests informed whale buying YES (Nationals win) in high-liquidity market ($576k).

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.385
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
3.5%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 +$565 🛡️ +$1,021
↑ YES ✓ WON news ⚽ sports Apr 11 · 21:00 UTC
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?

McIlroy leads by 6 shots entering 3rd round of 2026 Masters per Masters.com [320], Yahoo [308], Golf Channel [309]; market at 51% undervalues dominant position.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.510
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
29.0%
mispricing
Bots ⚡ +$1,972 🔥 +$1,286 ⚖️ +$1,429 🛡️ +$4,154
↑ YES ✗ LOST edge ⚽ sports Apr 11 · 20:57 UTC
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Schauffele top-3 golfer, 2x 2024 major winner; fair P~6% for 2026 Masters vs market 0.15%. Extreme low price despite thin liq.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.002
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
5.8%
mispricing
Bots ⚡ -$2,053 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$4,323
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale ⚽ sports Apr 11 · 20:20 UTC
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)

Blaydes (elite UFC HW, 18-4) heavy favorite vs regional Hokit; price depressed by whale NO bet (imbalance -0.779)

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.495
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
32.5%
mispricing
Bots ⚡ -$2,415 🔥 -$3,191 ⚖️ -$3,098 🛡️ -$4,323
↓ NO edge ⚽ sports Apr 11 · 20:13 UTC
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Market at 16% overprices Spurs; sportsbooks ~1% for 2025 win (+8000), 2026 realistically ~6% max w/ Wemby growth. Hype-driven mispricing.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.841
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
9.9%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $991 ⚖️ $1376 🛡️ $3201
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 11 · 20:04 UTC
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Extreme orderbook imbalance of 0.936 indicates heavy informed buying on YES, suggesting whale activity pushing for higher fair value.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.147
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
3.3%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $352 🛡️ $1138
↑ YES ✓ WON news ⚽ sports Apr 11 · 20:00 UTC
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Rory McIlroy sets Masters 36-hole record with 6-shot lead (news [293],[287]); market lags at 56.5%

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.565
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
28.5%
mispricing
Bots ⚡ +$1,581 🔥 +$1,030 ⚖️ +$1,145 🛡️ +$3,329
↓ NO ✗ LOST edge 💰 finance Apr 11 · 19:13 UTC
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Distant Apr 2026 FOMC (~1yr out); 98% overconfident given economic/geopolitical uncertainty & black swans; hist hold rates ~80-90% per mtg but future discount needed

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.018
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
6.2%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$4,323
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale 💰 finance Apr 11 · 18:50 UTC
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Orderbook imbalance 0.913 indicates strong bid-side pressure (informed buying); true P(50+ bps Fed cut Apr 2026) ~5% >> market 0.35%; irrelevant news.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.004
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
4.6%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 🛡️ -$4,323
↑ YES ✓ WON edge ⚽ sports Apr 11 · 18:48 UTC
Nuggets vs. Spurs

Nuggets superior roster/depth vs rebuilding Spurs (Jokic > Wemby edge). Market at 35.5% misprices Nuggets as underdogs for 2026 matchup.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.355
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
29.5%
mispricing
Bots ⚡ +$3,730 🔥 +$2,431 ⚖️ +$2,702 🛡️ +$7,855
↑ YES ✓ WON news ⚽ sports Apr 11 · 18:39 UTC
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Rory McIlroy takes largest 36-hole lead in Masters history per PGATour.com [260]; strong position with 2 rounds left

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.695
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
12.5%
mispricing
Bots ⚡ +$885 🔥 +$346 ⚖️ +$481 🛡️ +$1,119
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 15:00 UTC
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Market at 0.25% for extreme longshot (Uzbek ~65th FIFA). Clamp/calibration pulls up from near-0. Heavy yes imbalance 0.84 signals whale buy pressure amid high liq $2.3M.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.003
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.2%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 15:00 UTC
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Whale imbalance 0.716 indicates heavy YES bid side; $2.2M liq market at 0.0045; Paraguay longshot (~1/20000 prior) but pull toward 0.5 & clamp; thin evidence.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.005
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.0%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 14:58 UTC
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Whale bid imbalance 0.604; market 0.45% undervalues SK baseline ~1/48=2.1% for 48-team WC; no news or lines

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.005
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.3%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale 🗳️ politics Apr 10 · 14:58 UTC
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?

Orderbook imbalance 0.877 signals strong YES-side whale pressure; thin book but liquidity $305k; no news to contradict.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.105
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
12.9%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$2,500
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale 💰 finance Apr 10 · 14:58 UTC
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Extreme orderbook imbalance (0.980) indicates heavy bid-side liquidity, suggesting whale pressure on YES despite ultra-low price & high liquidity ($498k). Thin news; long-dated event.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.005
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.0%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$2,500
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