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Live · Balanced strategy

⚖️ Balanced live

Classic value betting. Edge > 5%, any confidence band. Kelly capped at 20%. The textbook approach — moderate selectivity, steady compounding.

Bankroll
$5704
$-4295.78 -43.0% vs $10000 start
Record
17W / 22L
44% win rate
Open Bets
0
peak $19365
Bankroll curve
39 settled · green = win · red = loss
💡
Performance insight

17 wins averaging $-4296 net gain. Kelly sizing means wins pay out asymmetrically — a signal bought at 0.20 returns 4× on a correct call. The model targets edge, not frequency.

Today's bets
Positions opened & settled today
live
⏳
No bets placed yet today
The bot fires the moment a new signal is published.
Short-term bets
Markets resolving within 30 days
≤ 30 days
Settled
17W / 22L
Win rate
44%
P&L
$-4295.78
Open positions 32
Market Dir Resolves Entry Edge Stake Max Win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? ↑ YES Apr 30 0.165 25.5% $1487 +$7,526
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? ↑ YES Apr 30 0.205 6.5% $741 +$2,875
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? ↑ YES Apr 15 0.095 8.5% $1487 +$14,168
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? ↑ YES Apr 30 0.330 8.0% $677 +$1,378
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? ↓ NO Apr 15 0.840 13.0% $1487 +$283
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 me… ↓ NO Apr 29 0.018 6.2% $1487 +$83,499
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? ↑ YES Apr 15 0.105 12.9% $1487 +$12,677
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 … ↑ YES Apr 29 0.005 16.0% $1487 +$329,015
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? ↑ YES May 01 0.005 16.0% $1487 +$329,015
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April… ↑ YES Apr 30 0.003 18.2% $1487 +$593,416
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? ↓ NO May 01 0.983 15.4% $1487 +$26
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? ↓ NO Apr 15 0.299 11.7% $1038 +$2,433
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 me… ↓ NO Apr 29 0.020 17.9% $1487 +$74,782
Trump out as President by April 30? ↓ NO Apr 30 0.985 14.9% $1487 +$23
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? ↓ NO Apr 30 0.971 13.8% $1487 +$45
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? ↑ YES Apr 30 0.051 14.9% $1487 +$27,963
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? ↑ YES Apr 30 0.085 14.2% $1487 +$16,010
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 … ↓ NO Apr 29 0.993 17.0% $1487 +$11
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 … ↑ YES Apr 29 0.005 16.0% $1487 +$329,015
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 m… ↑ YES Apr 29 0.009 16.9% $1487 +$173,484
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? ↑ YES Apr 15 0.105 13.6% $1487 +$12,677
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? ↑ YES May 01 0.005 16.0% $1487 +$329,015
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April… ↑ YES Apr 30 0.003 16.9% $1487 +$593,416
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? ↑ YES May 01 0.205 10.6% $1209 +$4,689
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? ↓ NO May 01 0.983 14.7% $1487 +$26
Netanyahu out by April 30? ↑ YES Apr 30 0.014 15.0% $1487 +$104,745
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? ↓ NO Apr 15 0.973 14.4% $1487 +$41
Trump out as President by April 30? ↓ NO Apr 30 0.985 14.9% $1487 +$23
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 … ↑ YES Apr 29 0.005 18.4% $1487 +$329,015
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 m… ↓ NO Apr 29 0.993 16.4% $1487 +$11
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 … ↓ NO Apr 29 0.994 15.8% $1487 +$10
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? ↑ YES Apr 15 0.105 13.6% $1487 +$12,677
Recently settled
Date Market Dir Entry Stake P&L Result
Apr 13 Nuggets vs. Spurs ↑ YES 0.185 $1048 +$4617.13 ✓ WON
Apr 13 Nuggets vs. Spurs ↓ NO 0.795 $627 $-627.39 ✗ LOST
Apr 13 Nuggets vs. Spurs ↑ YES 0.355 $1487 +$2702.20 ✓ WON
Apr 13 Magic vs. Celtics ↓ NO 0.240 $612 +$1936.53 ✓ WON
Apr 13 Hornets vs. Knicks ↓ NO 0.135 $876 $-875.61 ✗ LOST
Apr 13 Hornets vs. Knicks ↓ NO 0.165 $1147 $-1146.95 ✗ LOST
Apr 13 Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↑ YES 0.078 $1487 $-1487.26 ✗ LOST
Apr 13 Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↑ YES 0.076 $1487 $-1487.26 ✗ LOST
Apr 13 Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↓ NO 0.964 $1487 +$56.34 ✓ WON
Apr 13 Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↓ NO 0.944 $1487 +$88.23 ✓ WON
Apr 13 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↓ NO 0.635 $441 $-441.16 ✗ LOST
Apr 13 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↑ YES 0.355 $1487 +$2702.20 ✓ WON
Apr 13 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↑ YES 0.355 $1487 +$2702.20 ✓ WON
Apr 13 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↑ YES 0.510 $1487 +$1428.93 ✓ WON
Apr 13 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↑ YES 0.565 $1487 +$1145.06 ✓ WON
Apr 13 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↑ YES 0.695 $1096 +$481.10 ✓ WON
Apr 13 Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↓ NO 0.935 $1487 +$104.24 ✓ WON
Apr 13 Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↓ NO 0.937 $1487 +$100.00 ✓ WON
Apr 13 Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↓ NO 0.726 $1487 +$562.72 ✓ WON
Apr 13 Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↓ NO 0.721 $1487 +$575.51 ✓ WON
Apr 13 Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↑ YES 0.023 $1487 $-1487.26 ✗ LOST
Apr 13 Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↑ YES 0.002 $1487 $-1487.26 ✗ LOST
Apr 12 Military action against Iran ends on April 14, 2026? ↑ YES 0.002 $1487 $-1487.26 ✗ LOST
Apr 12 Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026? ↑ YES 0.004 $1487 $-1487.26 ✗ LOST
Apr 12 Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026? ↑ YES 0.010 $1487 $-1487.26 ✗ LOST
Apr 12 Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026? ↑ YES 0.004 $1487 $-1487.26 ✗ LOST
Apr 12 Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026? ↑ YES 0.003 $1487 $-1487.26 ✗ LOST
Apr 12 Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? ↑ YES 0.004 $1487 $-1487.26 ✗ LOST
Apr 12 Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? ↓ NO 0.998 $1487 +$3.73 ✓ WON
Apr 12 Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↑ YES 0.003 $1487 $-1487.26 ✗ LOST
Apr 12 Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? ↑ YES 0.003 $1487 $-1487.26 ✗ LOST
Apr 12 Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres ↑ YES 0.016 $2479 $-2478.76 ✗ LOST
Apr 12 Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers ↑ YES 0.095 $2479 $-2478.76 ✗ LOST
Apr 12 UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) ↑ YES 0.495 $3098 $-3098.46 ✗ LOST
Apr 12 76ers vs. Pacers ↓ NO 0.105 $3873 $-3873.07 ✗ LOST
Apr 12 Timberwolves vs. Rockets ↑ YES 0.195 $1958 +$8084.35 ✓ WON
Apr 12 76ers vs. Pacers ↓ NO 0.105 $2820 $-2820.25 ✗ LOST
Apr 12 Timberwolves vs. Rockets ↑ YES 0.195 $1478 +$6101.25 ✓ WON
Apr 12 76ers vs. Pacers ↓ NO 0.115 $2000 $-2000.00 ✗ LOST
Long-term bets
Markets resolving in 30+ days
30+ days
Open positions 49
Market Dir Resolves Entry Edge Stake Max Win
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? ↓ NO Jul 01 0.827 7.3% $949 +$198
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? ↓ NO May 27 0.345 49.5% $1487 +$2,824
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? ↓ NO Jul 01 0.829 12.1% $1487 +$308
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? ↓ NO Jul 01 0.841 9.9% $1376 +$260
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.003 16.2% $1487 +$593,416
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.005 16.0% $1487 +$329,015
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.005 16.3% $1487 +$329,015
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? ↓ NO May 31 0.914 11.9% $1487 +$141
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? ↑ YES May 31 0.195 11.6% $1374 +$5,671
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? ↑ YES Jul 01 0.005 16.0% $1487 +$329,015
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? ↑ YES Jul 01 0.148 10.7% $1487 +$8,562
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.003 16.2% $1487 +$593,416
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.003 18.2% $1487 +$593,416
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? ↑ YES May 27 0.855 11.0% $1487 +$252
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.005 16.0% $1487 +$329,015
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? ↑ YES Jul 01 0.004 16.8% $1487 +$423,444
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.003 16.2% $1487 +$593,416
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↓ NO Jul 20 0.996 16.0% $1487 +$7
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.006 15.9% $1487 +$268,923
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election ↑ YES Jun 03 0.005 16.0% $1487 +$329,015
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? ↑ YES Jun 30 0.946 15.1% $1487 +$86
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.017 15.1% $1487 +$88,650
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.024 14.7% $1487 +$60,482
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? ↑ YES Jun 30 0.036 14.2% $1487 +$40,407
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↑ YES Oct 04 0.004 19.6% $1487 +$423,444
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.003 16.2% $1487 +$593,416
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.003 16.2% $1487 +$593,416
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? ↑ YES Jul 01 0.148 10.7% $1487 +$8,562
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? ↑ YES Jul 01 0.005 16.0% $1487 +$329,015
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.003 16.5% $1487 +$593,416
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.003 16.2% $1487 +$593,416
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.003 16.2% $1487 +$593,416
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.005 16.0% $1487 +$329,015
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↓ NO Jul 20 0.911 11.7% $1487 +$145
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.005 16.0% $1487 +$329,015
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? ↑ YES Jul 01 0.004 16.1% $1487 +$423,444
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.003 16.2% $1487 +$593,416
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.003 16.2% $1487 +$593,416
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.006 15.9% $1487 +$268,923
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election ↑ YES Jun 03 0.005 16.0% $1487 +$329,015
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? ↑ YES Jun 07 0.016 15.2% $1487 +$91,466
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.005 16.0% $1487 +$329,015
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? ↑ YES Jun 30 0.946 15.2% $1487 +$85
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.017 15.8% $1487 +$88,650
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↑ YES Jul 20 0.023 14.6% $1487 +$64,613
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? ↑ YES Jun 30 0.036 14.9% $1487 +$40,407
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? ↑ YES Jul 01 0.148 10.8% $1487 +$8,596
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? ↑ YES Jun 30 0.115 14.0% $1487 +$11,445
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? ↑ YES Jul 01 0.005 16.0% $1487 +$329,015
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