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Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

other · resolves 2026-04-29

Resolution criteria

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whale/yes 2026-04-10 14:12

Extreme bid imbalance (0.993) signals whale buying YES at 0.85%; far-future (2026) thin evidence, price pulled toward 0.5 per calibration.

entry 0.009 · edge 0.169
whale/no 2026-04-10 13:25

Whale imbalance of 0.956 on thin top-of-book pushes YES to 0.0075; long-term market with 320k liq reflects low cut prob, no counter news.

entry 0.993 · edge 0.164