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Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

other · resolves 2026-06-30

Resolution criteria

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Our signals on this market

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whale/yes 2026-04-10 14:47

Whale imbalance 0.616 on thin top-of-book; market at 3.55% with $246k liq, no news. Slight pull up from mid.

entry 0.036 · edge 0.143
whale/yes 2026-04-10 14:01

Whale imbalance 0.604 amid thin book (sizes@0); market mid ~3.5%; no news; pulled toward 0.5 for thin evidence.

entry 0.036 · edge 0.150