Calibration model puts NO at 8.3% vs market 16.1% — 7.7% drift after isotonic correction of original raw 12.2%.
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Orderbook imbalance -0.87 on $658,379 24h volume signals informed selling pressure.
Trade on PolymarketCalibration model puts NO at 4.1% vs market 12.8% — 8.6% drift after isotonic correction of original raw 10.0%.
Trade on PolymarketLarge negative orderbook imbalance (-0.836) suggests informed selling of YES, indicating overpricing at 17.3%; Spurs unlikely 2026 champs given current roster trajectory.
Trade on PolymarketSpurs rebuilding with Wemby but projected ~35 wins 25-26; sportsbooks have 2026 futures ~20-50/1 (2-5%); 17% price reflects hype, not reality. Imbalance may be noise.
Trade on PolymarketExtreme orderbook imbalance (-0.957) signals heavy informed selling of YES shares, implying lower probability than market price.
Trade on PolymarketMarket at 16% overprices Spurs; sportsbooks ~1% for 2025 win (+8000), 2026 realistically ~6% max w/ Wemby growth. Hype-driven mispricing.
Trade on PolymarketExtreme orderbook imbalance of 0.936 indicates heavy informed buying on YES, suggesting whale activity pushing for higher fair value.
Trade on PolymarketMarket at 0.25% for extreme longshot (Uzbek ~65th FIFA). Clamp/calibration pulls up from near-0. Heavy yes imbalance 0.84 signals whale buy pressure amid high liq $2.3M.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.716 indicates heavy YES bid side; $2.2M liq market at 0.0045; Paraguay longshot (~1/20000 prior) but pull toward 0.5 & clamp; thin evidence.
Trade on PolymarketWhale bid imbalance 0.604; market 0.45% undervalues SK baseline ~1/48=2.1% for 48-team WC; no news or lines
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.641 favoring YES bids in orderbook
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.774 favors bids; thin top orderbook but high liquidity $2.9M; Cape Verde extreme longshot but potential mispricing from whale activity.
Trade on PolymarketHeavy YES bid imbalance (0.825) suggests whale accumulation despite thin top-of-book and low fundamental odds for NZ.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.739 favoring YES; thin top orderbook (0 depth at 0.004 bid/0.005 ask); market at 0.45% reflects lottery pricing for low-prob event.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.780 favors YES; thin orderbook (bids 0.002@0, asks 0.003@0); no news or lines.
Trade on PolymarketExtreme longshot for Congo DR to win WC (no African winner ever, rank ~70th). Market at 0.45% inflated by whale yes imbalance (0.953); thin evidence, clamp low.
Trade on PolymarketOrderbook imbalance 0.634 signals whale buying pressure on YES amid thin top-of-book and low price.
Trade on PolymarketHigh orderbook imbalance (0.73) indicates whale buy pressure on YES despite thin top levels; market at 1.65% undervalues vs prior ~2.5% Morocco odds post-2022 semis.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.725 shows strong YES-side pressure despite thin top orderbook (0 sizes) and low liquidity depth. No news or lines to contradict. Market price 0.024.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.616 on thin top-of-book; market at 3.55% with $246k liq, no news. Slight pull up from mid.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.925 indicates heavy bid pressure on YES at ultra-low prices (0.0035); far-future election with thin evidence, pulled toward 0.5 per calibration.
Trade on PolymarketHigh orderbook imbalance (0.804) signals whale bid pressure on YES despite thin top-5 book and ultra-low market price (0.0025); liquidity $2.5M suggests efficiency but trigger indicates potential edge.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.691 shows strong bid pressure on YES shares at 0.0025 price amid $2.5M liquidity. No news or books to contradict. Thin top book but high overall liq.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.903 on thin orderbook (bids 0.196@0, asks 0.201@0) indicates strong yes-side pressure amid low liquidity.
Trade on PolymarketHeavy YES bid imbalance (0.795) on $173k liquidity market suggests whale accumulation; thin book but no counter news/lines.
Trade on PolymarketHigh yes imbalance (0.774) on thin top-of-book amid whale_imbalance trigger; market price extreme low, pulled toward 0.5 per calibration.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.824 indicates heavy YES-side pressure; thin orderbook (0 sizes shown) but high liquidity $2.7M and trigger confirm activity. Market at 0.0025, clamped per calibration.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.824 favors YES; market 0.0025 but thin evidence (no news/lines); naive 1/48~2%; pull extreme low toward 0.5
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance of 0.603 (bid-heavy) on $2.3M liquidity market suggests upward pressure on low 0.45% yes price; thin top book but triggered on whale activity.
Trade on PolymarketOrderbook shows heavy ask-side imbalance (-0.767) with whale_imbalance trigger, indicating strong selling pressure on YES; suggests current 8.9% price may be high.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.739 favors yes (bid-heavy); thin book (top sizes 0), no news or lines to contradict; market price extreme low pulled per calibration.
Trade on PolymarketWhale-driven bid imbalance of 0.840; thin evidence, no news; market price 0.0025 but clamped for calibration.
Trade on PolymarketBid imbalance 0.778 signals whale YES interest amid thin top orderbook. No news/lines. Market at 0.0025 reflects longshot status; clamped per calibration.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.638 indicates buy pressure on YES amid thin top-of-book; high liq market at 0.55% but pull extreme low toward 0.5 per calibration.
Trade on PolymarketOrderbook imbalance of 0.953 indicates heavy YES-side liquidity/whale activity supporting higher price than current 0.0045 mid.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance of 0.723 indicates buy pressure on YES; market price 1.65% low for Morocco post-2022 semis run, thin evidence only orderbook.
Trade on PolymarketStrong orderbook imbalance (0.833) indicates whale buying pressure on YES; no contrary news.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.604 amid thin book (sizes@0); market mid ~3.5%; no news; pulled toward 0.5 for thin evidence.
Trade on PolymarketHigh yes-side imbalance (0.610) suggests whale buying yes; thin orderbook (0@ top) but liquidity $173k; no news.
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