polysignals.dev
Updated in real time

Signal feed

Free tier — rationale and fair value blurred. Upgrade to Pro →

Unlock full rationale
How to act on a signal — 30-second guide
1
Open Polymarket
Click "Trade on Polymarket" on any signal card to jump directly to the market.
2
Buy at or below entry
Signal says entry 0.34? Buy Yes shares at ≤ $0.34. Above that, the edge shrinks.
3
Size with Kelly
Kelly 5% with a $1,000 bankroll = risk $50 on this trade. Never exceed the Kelly fraction.
4
Wait for resolution
Polymarket markets resolve at expiry. Winning Yes shares pay $1 each, losing pay $0.
⚠️ Research signals only — not financial advice. See disclaimer.
All ✓ Resolved ⏳ Open sports politics geopolitical finance crypto other
36 signals · sorted by newest, unresolved
↓ NO LATEST edge ⚽ sports Apr 27 · 07:04 UTC
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Calibration model puts NO at 8.3% vs market 16.1% — 7.7% drift after isotonic correction of original raw 12.2%.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.840
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
7.7%
mispricing
Bots 🎯 $600
↓ NO whale ⚽ sports Apr 27 · 07:04 UTC
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Orderbook imbalance -0.87 on $658,379 24h volume signals informed selling pressure.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.840
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
3.8%
mispricing
↓ NO edge ⚽ sports Apr 25 · 14:22 UTC
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Calibration model puts NO at 4.1% vs market 12.8% — 8.6% drift after isotonic correction of original raw 10.0%.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.873
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
8.6%
mispricing
Bots 🎯 $800
↓ NO whale ⚽ sports Apr 12 · 05:04 UTC
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Large negative orderbook imbalance (-0.836) suggests informed selling of YES, indicating overpricing at 17.3%; Spurs unlikely 2026 champs given current roster trajectory.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.827
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
7.3%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $683 ⚖️ $949 🛡️ $2206
↓ NO edge ⚽ sports Apr 12 · 01:03 UTC
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Spurs rebuilding with Wemby but projected ~35 wins 25-26; sportsbooks have 2026 futures ~20-50/1 (2-5%); 17% price reflects hype, not reality. Imbalance may be noise.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.829
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
12.1%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1144 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $3697
↓ NO whale ⚽ sports Apr 12 · 00:04 UTC
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Extreme orderbook imbalance (-0.957) signals heavy informed selling of YES shares, implying lower probability than market price.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.848
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
3.2%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $332 🛡️ $1073
↓ NO edge ⚽ sports Apr 11 · 20:13 UTC
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Market at 16% overprices Spurs; sportsbooks ~1% for 2025 win (+8000), 2026 realistically ~6% max w/ Wemby growth. Hype-driven mispricing.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.841
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
9.9%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $991 ⚖️ $1376 🛡️ $3201
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 11 · 20:04 UTC
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Extreme orderbook imbalance of 0.936 indicates heavy informed buying on YES, suggesting whale activity pushing for higher fair value.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.147
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
3.3%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $352 🛡️ $1138
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 15:00 UTC
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Market at 0.25% for extreme longshot (Uzbek ~65th FIFA). Clamp/calibration pulls up from near-0. Heavy yes imbalance 0.84 signals whale buy pressure amid high liq $2.3M.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.003
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.2%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 15:00 UTC
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Whale imbalance 0.716 indicates heavy YES bid side; $2.2M liq market at 0.0045; Paraguay longshot (~1/20000 prior) but pull toward 0.5 & clamp; thin evidence.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.005
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.0%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 14:58 UTC
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Whale bid imbalance 0.604; market 0.45% undervalues SK baseline ~1/48=2.1% for 48-team WC; no news or lines

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.005
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.3%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
Bots 🔥 $1135 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2121
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 14:55 UTC
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Whale imbalance 0.774 favors bids; thin top orderbook but high liquidity $2.9M; Cape Verde extreme longshot but potential mispricing from whale activity.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.003
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.2%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 14:55 UTC
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Heavy YES bid imbalance (0.825) suggests whale accumulation despite thin top-of-book and low fundamental odds for NZ.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.003
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
18.2%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 14:52 UTC
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Whale imbalance 0.739 favoring YES; thin top orderbook (0 depth at 0.004 bid/0.005 ask); market at 0.45% reflects lottery pricing for low-prob event.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.005
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.0%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 14:51 UTC
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Whale imbalance 0.780 favors YES; thin orderbook (bids 0.002@0, asks 0.003@0); no news or lines.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.003
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.2%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↓ NO whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 14:51 UTC
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Extreme longshot for Congo DR to win WC (no African winner ever, rank ~70th). Market at 0.45% inflated by whale yes imbalance (0.953); thin evidence, clamp low.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.996
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.0%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 14:50 UTC
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Orderbook imbalance 0.634 signals whale buying pressure on YES amid thin top-of-book and low price.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.006
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
15.9%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 14:48 UTC
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

High orderbook imbalance (0.73) indicates whale buy pressure on YES despite thin top levels; market at 1.65% undervalues vs prior ~2.5% Morocco odds post-2022 semis.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.017
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
15.1%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 14:48 UTC
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Whale imbalance 0.725 shows strong YES-side pressure despite thin top orderbook (0 sizes) and low liquidity depth. No news or lines to contradict. Market price 0.024.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.024
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
14.7%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 14:24 UTC
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

High orderbook imbalance (0.804) signals whale bid pressure on YES despite thin top-5 book and ultra-low market price (0.0025); liquidity $2.5M suggests efficiency but trigger indicates potential edge.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.003
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.2%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 14:15 UTC
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Whale imbalance 0.691 shows strong bid pressure on YES shares at 0.0025 price amid $2.5M liquidity. No news or books to contradict. Thin top book but high overall liq.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.003
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.2%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 14:10 UTC
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Heavy YES bid imbalance (0.795) on $173k liquidity market suggests whale accumulation; thin book but no counter news/lines.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.148
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
10.7%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1135 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2121
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 14:09 UTC
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

High yes imbalance (0.774) on thin top-of-book amid whale_imbalance trigger; market price extreme low, pulled toward 0.5 per calibration.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.003
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.5%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 14:08 UTC
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Whale imbalance 0.824 indicates heavy YES-side pressure; thin orderbook (0 sizes shown) but high liquidity $2.7M and trigger confirm activity. Market at 0.0025, clamped per calibration.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.003
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.2%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 14:08 UTC
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Whale imbalance 0.824 favors YES; market 0.0025 but thin evidence (no news/lines); naive 1/48~2%; pull extreme low toward 0.5

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.003
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.2%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 14:07 UTC
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Whale imbalance of 0.603 (bid-heavy) on $2.3M liquidity market suggests upward pressure on low 0.45% yes price; thin top book but triggered on whale activity.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.005
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.0%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↓ NO whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 14:07 UTC
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Orderbook shows heavy ask-side imbalance (-0.767) with whale_imbalance trigger, indicating strong selling pressure on YES; suggests current 8.9% price may be high.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.911
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
11.7%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 14:06 UTC
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Whale imbalance 0.739 favors yes (bid-heavy); thin book (top sizes 0), no news or lines to contradict; market price extreme low pulled per calibration.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.005
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.0%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 14:05 UTC
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Whale-driven bid imbalance of 0.840; thin evidence, no news; market price 0.0025 but clamped for calibration.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.003
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.2%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 14:04 UTC
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Bid imbalance 0.778 signals whale YES interest amid thin top orderbook. No news/lines. Market at 0.0025 reflects longshot status; clamped per calibration.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.003
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.2%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 14:04 UTC
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Whale imbalance 0.638 indicates buy pressure on YES amid thin top-of-book; high liq market at 0.55% but pull extreme low toward 0.5 per calibration.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.006
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
15.9%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 14:03 UTC
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Orderbook imbalance of 0.953 indicates heavy YES-side liquidity/whale activity supporting higher price than current 0.0045 mid.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.005
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.0%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 14:02 UTC
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Whale imbalance of 0.723 indicates buy pressure on YES; market price 1.65% low for Morocco post-2022 semis run, thin evidence only orderbook.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.017
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
15.8%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 14:01 UTC
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Strong orderbook imbalance (0.833) indicates whale buying pressure on YES; no contrary news.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.023
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
14.6%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
↑ YES whale ⚽ sports Apr 10 · 13:25 UTC
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

High yes-side imbalance (0.610) suggests whale buying yes; thin orderbook (0@ top) but liquidity $173k; no news.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.148
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
10.8%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1144 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2137