Calibration model puts NO at 8.3% vs market 16.1% — 7.7% drift after isotonic correction of original raw 12.2%.
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Orderbook imbalance -0.87 on $658,379 24h volume signals informed selling pressure.
Trade on PolymarketCalibration model puts NO at 4.1% vs market 12.8% — 8.6% drift after isotonic correction of original raw 10.0%.
Trade on PolymarketLarge negative orderbook imbalance (-0.836) suggests informed selling of YES, indicating overpricing at 17.3%; Spurs unlikely 2026 champs given current roster trajectory.
Trade on PolymarketSpurs rebuilding with Wemby but projected ~35 wins 25-26; sportsbooks have 2026 futures ~20-50/1 (2-5%); 17% price reflects hype, not reality. Imbalance may be noise.
Trade on PolymarketExtreme orderbook imbalance (-0.957) signals heavy informed selling of YES shares, implying lower probability than market price.
Trade on PolymarketMarket at 16% overprices Spurs; sportsbooks ~1% for 2025 win (+8000), 2026 realistically ~6% max w/ Wemby growth. Hype-driven mispricing.
Trade on PolymarketExtreme orderbook imbalance of 0.936 indicates heavy informed buying on YES, suggesting whale activity pushing for higher fair value.
Trade on PolymarketMarket at 0.25% for extreme longshot (Uzbek ~65th FIFA). Clamp/calibration pulls up from near-0. Heavy yes imbalance 0.84 signals whale buy pressure amid high liq $2.3M.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.716 indicates heavy YES bid side; $2.2M liq market at 0.0045; Paraguay longshot (~1/20000 prior) but pull toward 0.5 & clamp; thin evidence.
Trade on PolymarketWhale bid imbalance 0.604; market 0.45% undervalues SK baseline ~1/48=2.1% for 48-team WC; no news or lines
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.641 favoring YES bids in orderbook
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.774 favors bids; thin top orderbook but high liquidity $2.9M; Cape Verde extreme longshot but potential mispricing from whale activity.
Trade on PolymarketHeavy YES bid imbalance (0.825) suggests whale accumulation despite thin top-of-book and low fundamental odds for NZ.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.739 favoring YES; thin top orderbook (0 depth at 0.004 bid/0.005 ask); market at 0.45% reflects lottery pricing for low-prob event.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.780 favors YES; thin orderbook (bids 0.002@0, asks 0.003@0); no news or lines.
Trade on PolymarketExtreme longshot for Congo DR to win WC (no African winner ever, rank ~70th). Market at 0.45% inflated by whale yes imbalance (0.953); thin evidence, clamp low.
Trade on PolymarketOrderbook imbalance 0.634 signals whale buying pressure on YES amid thin top-of-book and low price.
Trade on PolymarketHigh orderbook imbalance (0.73) indicates whale buy pressure on YES despite thin top levels; market at 1.65% undervalues vs prior ~2.5% Morocco odds post-2022 semis.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.725 shows strong YES-side pressure despite thin top orderbook (0 sizes) and low liquidity depth. No news or lines to contradict. Market price 0.024.
Trade on PolymarketHigh orderbook imbalance (0.804) signals whale bid pressure on YES despite thin top-5 book and ultra-low market price (0.0025); liquidity $2.5M suggests efficiency but trigger indicates potential edge.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.691 shows strong bid pressure on YES shares at 0.0025 price amid $2.5M liquidity. No news or books to contradict. Thin top book but high overall liq.
Trade on PolymarketHeavy YES bid imbalance (0.795) on $173k liquidity market suggests whale accumulation; thin book but no counter news/lines.
Trade on PolymarketHigh yes imbalance (0.774) on thin top-of-book amid whale_imbalance trigger; market price extreme low, pulled toward 0.5 per calibration.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.824 indicates heavy YES-side pressure; thin orderbook (0 sizes shown) but high liquidity $2.7M and trigger confirm activity. Market at 0.0025, clamped per calibration.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.824 favors YES; market 0.0025 but thin evidence (no news/lines); naive 1/48~2%; pull extreme low toward 0.5
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance of 0.603 (bid-heavy) on $2.3M liquidity market suggests upward pressure on low 0.45% yes price; thin top book but triggered on whale activity.
Trade on PolymarketOrderbook shows heavy ask-side imbalance (-0.767) with whale_imbalance trigger, indicating strong selling pressure on YES; suggests current 8.9% price may be high.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.739 favors yes (bid-heavy); thin book (top sizes 0), no news or lines to contradict; market price extreme low pulled per calibration.
Trade on PolymarketWhale-driven bid imbalance of 0.840; thin evidence, no news; market price 0.0025 but clamped for calibration.
Trade on PolymarketBid imbalance 0.778 signals whale YES interest amid thin top orderbook. No news/lines. Market at 0.0025 reflects longshot status; clamped per calibration.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.638 indicates buy pressure on YES amid thin top-of-book; high liq market at 0.55% but pull extreme low toward 0.5 per calibration.
Trade on PolymarketOrderbook imbalance of 0.953 indicates heavy YES-side liquidity/whale activity supporting higher price than current 0.0045 mid.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance of 0.723 indicates buy pressure on YES; market price 1.65% low for Morocco post-2022 semis run, thin evidence only orderbook.
Trade on PolymarketStrong orderbook imbalance (0.833) indicates whale buying pressure on YES; no contrary news.
Trade on PolymarketHigh yes-side imbalance (0.610) suggests whale buying yes; thin orderbook (0@ top) but liquidity $173k; no news.
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