Calibration model puts NO at 8.3% vs market 16.1% — 7.7% drift after isotonic correction of original raw 12.2%.
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Orderbook imbalance -0.87 on $658,379 24h volume signals informed selling pressure.
Trade on PolymarketCalibration model puts NO at 4.1% vs market 12.8% — 8.6% drift after isotonic correction of original raw 10.0%.
Trade on PolymarketScheffler world #1, 2024 Masters winner; dominant form implies ~14% chance vs 7.75% price. Extreme ask imbalance likely overreaction.
Trade on PolymarketImbalance 0.980 shows whale YES buy pumping price to 27% but Cameron Young (~OWGR 25-30) unlikely top favorite for 2026 Masters; true odds ~+4000 (2.5%).
Trade on PolymarketOrderbook imbalance 0.797 signals strong bid-side pressure, indicating potential whale buying YES at 39.5% (undervalued)
Trade on PolymarketHeavy orderbook imbalance (-0.834) suggests informed selling on YES, implying lower true probability than market price (0.117).
Trade on PolymarketLarge negative orderbook imbalance (-0.760) suggests informed selling of YES shares, indicating true P(YES) < market price
Trade on PolymarketHigh orderbook imbalance (0.774) signals heavy informed buying pressure on YES shares at 18.5%, indicating undervaluation.
Trade on PolymarketLarge negative orderbook imbalance (-0.836) suggests informed selling of YES, indicating overpricing at 17.3%; Spurs unlikely 2026 champs given current roster trajectory.
Trade on PolymarketHeavy negative orderbook imbalance (-0.756) indicates whale selling YES, pushing price to 7.55%; Scheffler's #1 ranking & recent Masters win imply ~14% true prob for 2026.
Trade on PolymarketMLB reg season win probs never <20%; 1.5% impossible even for Rockies underdog vs Padres. Realistic ~32%. Thin book explains misprice.
Trade on PolymarketOrderbook imbalance -0.817 indicates whale selling pressure on YES. Market at 6.15% overprices Rose's 2026 Masters win prob (~3%) given age 46 & competition.
Trade on Polymarket65.5% price absurdly high for Arsenal 2025-26 EPL win (typical preseason odds ~15%); heavy sell imbalance (-0.79) indicates informed selling
Trade on Polymarket0.28 price wildly overstates Cameron Young's chances (~2.5%) to win 2026 Masters; typical futures odds for him are 40-1+ (2-3%). Bid imbalance may reflect whale pump, not fundamentals.
Trade on PolymarketOrderbook imbalance of 0.798 signals whale buying YES, indicating informed accumulation and potential mispricing at 0.835.
Trade on PolymarketFresh news [390,384]: McIlroy struggles in Rd3 but shares lead with surging Cameron Young entering final round; market overprices Rory's win prob vs typical co-leader odds (~25-30%).
Trade on PolymarketMarket at 9.5% severely underprices Rangers MLB win prob vs Dodgers; priors for underdog in reg season game ~40-45% given team strengths.
Trade on PolymarketSpurs rebuilding with Wemby but projected ~35 wins 25-26; sportsbooks have 2026 futures ~20-50/1 (2-5%); 17% price reflects hype, not reality. Imbalance may be noise.
Trade on PolymarketGolf Digest [358]: Rory McIlroy has built a monster lead in bid for second green jacket at 2026 Masters; USA Today [369] live updates confirm strong position late tournament.
Trade on PolymarketLarge orderbook imbalance (-0.790) indicates strong sell pressure on YES (buy NO), suggesting informed whale believes true P(YES) < market 20.5%. Thin book but significant skew.
Trade on PolymarketExtreme orderbook imbalance (-0.957) signals heavy informed selling of YES shares, implying lower probability than market price.
Trade on PolymarketDistant 2026 NBA game; high uncertainty from rosters/trades/injuries discounts heavy favorite prob from 83.5% to 75%. Price delta trigger suggests overreaction.
Trade on PolymarketMcIlroy leads by 6 shots after Round 3 per Reuters [331] & NYT [347]; historically dominant position at Masters.
Trade on PolymarketOrderbook imbalance -0.857 indicates heavy selling pressure, thin bids at 0.074@0; suggests informed whale bet against Rose winning 2026 Masters
Trade on PolymarketLarge negative orderbook imbalance (-0.748) suggests informed selling of YES shares.
Trade on PolymarketSignificant buy-side order book imbalance (0.757) suggests informed whale buying YES (Nationals win) in high-liquidity market ($576k).
Trade on PolymarketMcIlroy leads by 6 shots entering 3rd round of 2026 Masters per Masters.com [320], Yahoo [308], Golf Channel [309]; market at 51% undervalues dominant position.
Trade on PolymarketSchauffele top-3 golfer, 2x 2024 major winner; fair P~6% for 2026 Masters vs market 0.15%. Extreme low price despite thin liq.
Trade on PolymarketBlaydes (elite UFC HW, 18-4) heavy favorite vs regional Hokit; price depressed by whale NO bet (imbalance -0.779)
Trade on PolymarketMarket at 16% overprices Spurs; sportsbooks ~1% for 2025 win (+8000), 2026 realistically ~6% max w/ Wemby growth. Hype-driven mispricing.
Trade on PolymarketExtreme orderbook imbalance of 0.936 indicates heavy informed buying on YES, suggesting whale activity pushing for higher fair value.
Trade on PolymarketRory McIlroy sets Masters 36-hole record with 6-shot lead (news [293],[287]); market lags at 56.5%
Trade on PolymarketNuggets superior roster/depth vs rebuilding Spurs (Jokic > Wemby edge). Market at 35.5% misprices Nuggets as underdogs for 2026 matchup.
Trade on PolymarketRory McIlroy takes largest 36-hole lead in Masters history per PGATour.com [260]; strong position with 2 rounds left
Trade on PolymarketMarket at 0.25% for extreme longshot (Uzbek ~65th FIFA). Clamp/calibration pulls up from near-0. Heavy yes imbalance 0.84 signals whale buy pressure amid high liq $2.3M.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.716 indicates heavy YES bid side; $2.2M liq market at 0.0045; Paraguay longshot (~1/20000 prior) but pull toward 0.5 & clamp; thin evidence.
Trade on PolymarketWhale bid imbalance 0.604; market 0.45% undervalues SK baseline ~1/48=2.1% for 48-team WC; no news or lines
Trade on PolymarketExtreme orderbook imbalance (0.947) suggests whale accumulation on YES at ultra-low prices (0.0045). No relevant NBA/76ers news in last 24h.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.641 favoring YES bids in orderbook
Trade on PolymarketStrong negative orderbook imbalance (-0.908) from whale activity indicates selling pressure on YES.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.774 favors bids; thin top orderbook but high liquidity $2.9M; Cape Verde extreme longshot but potential mispricing from whale activity.
Trade on PolymarketHeavy YES bid imbalance (0.825) suggests whale accumulation despite thin top-of-book and low fundamental odds for NZ.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance of 0.607 shows YES-side pressure; no contrary news or lines; long-term market with thin top-of-book.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.739 favoring YES; thin top orderbook (0 depth at 0.004 bid/0.005 ask); market at 0.45% reflects lottery pricing for low-prob event.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.748 heavily favors yes bids at ultra-low 0.0035 price; thin evidence but suggests undervaluation for Magic's contender potential in 2026.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.780 favors YES; thin orderbook (bids 0.002@0, asks 0.003@0); no news or lines.
Trade on PolymarketHeavy negative orderbook imbalance (-0.760) indicates whale pressure selling YES (buying NO). Thin book but triggered on whale_imbalance.
Trade on PolymarketExtreme longshot for Congo DR to win WC (no African winner ever, rank ~70th). Market at 0.45% inflated by whale yes imbalance (0.953); thin evidence, clamp low.
Trade on PolymarketOrderbook imbalance 0.634 signals whale buying pressure on YES amid thin top-of-book and low price.
Trade on Polymarket