polysignals.dev
Sign in Start Pro
Updated in real time

Signal feed

Free tier — rationale and fair value blurred. Upgrade to Pro →

Unlock full rationale
▶ How to act on a signal — 30-second guide
1
Open Polymarket
Click "Trade on Polymarket" on any signal card to jump directly to the market.
2
Buy at or below entry
Signal says entry 0.34? Buy Yes shares at ≤ $0.34. Above that, the edge shrinks.
3
Size with Kelly
Kelly 5% with a $1,000 bankroll = risk $50 on this trade. Never exceed the Kelly fraction.
4
Wait for resolution
Polymarket markets resolve at expiry. Winning Yes shares pay $1 each, losing pay $0.
⚠️ Research signals only — not financial advice. See disclaimer.
All ✓ Resolved ⏳ Open sports politics geopolitical finance crypto other ✕
11 signals · sorted by newest
↓ NO ✓ WON edge 🗳️ politics Apr 11 · 21:25 UTC
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?

No current US military operations against Iran. Trump not president until Jan 2025 earliest. Highly improbable for ops to start post-inauguration and end by Apr 15. Market at 16% overprices drastically.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.840
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
13.0%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 +$247 ⚖️ +$283 🛡️ +$797
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale 🗳️ politics Apr 10 · 14:58 UTC
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?

Orderbook imbalance 0.877 signals strong YES-side whale pressure; thin book but liquidity $305k; no news to contradict.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.105
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
12.9%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$2,500
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale 🗳️ politics Apr 10 · 14:49 UTC
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Heavy YES imbalance (0.698) indicates potential whale activity on thin orderbook; market price 0.0045 but clamped per calibration.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.005
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.0%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$2,500
↓ NO ✓ WON news 🗳️ politics Apr 10 · 14:39 UTC
Trump out as President by April 30?

[31] Sky News: Trump tells Netanyahu to 'low-key it' in Lebanon, confirming he remains active as President. No news of removal.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.985
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
14.9%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 +$21 ⚖️ +$23 🛡️ +$39
↑ YES whale 🗳️ politics Apr 10 · 14:26 UTC
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Whale imbalance 0.925 indicates heavy bid pressure on YES at ultra-low prices (0.0035); far-future election with thin evidence, pulled toward 0.5 per calibration.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.004
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
19.6%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 $1338 ⚖️ $1487 🛡️ $2500
Bots 🛡️ $1658
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale 🗳️ politics Apr 10 · 14:11 UTC
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?

High orderbook imbalance (0.803) indicates whale bid pressure on YES amid thin top levels. No news; market price 0.105 suggests underpricing.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.105
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
13.6%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$2,500
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale 🗳️ politics Apr 10 · 14:03 UTC
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Whale imbalance 0.697 indicates YES-side buying pressure; thin book but no news or lines to contradict low market price of 0.0045

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.005
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.0%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$2,500
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale 🗳️ politics Apr 10 · 14:02 UTC
Netanyahu out by April 30?

Orderbook imbalance 0.659 signals strong bid-side pressure (whale activity), suggesting upside from current 1.4% mid despite thin news/liquidity.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.014
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
15.0%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$2,500
↓ NO ✓ WON whale 🗳️ politics Apr 10 · 13:26 UTC
Trump out as President by April 30?

Market at 1.55% YES; strong negative imbalance (-0.646) signals whale pressure selling YES amid thin top book.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.985
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
14.9%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 +$21 ⚖️ +$23 🛡️ +$39
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale 🗳️ politics Apr 10 · 13:24 UTC
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?

Whale-driven yes imbalance of 0.758 on thin book (bids 0.100@0, asks 0.110@0); no news or conflicting info; vague resolution on non-existent ops.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.105
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
13.6%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$2,500