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How to act on a signal — 30-second guide
1
Open Polymarket
Click "Trade on Polymarket" on any signal card to jump directly to the market.
2
Buy at or below entry
Signal says entry 0.34? Buy Yes shares at ≤ $0.34. Above that, the edge shrinks.
3
Size with Kelly
Kelly 5% with a $1,000 bankroll = risk $50 on this trade. Never exceed the Kelly fraction.
4
Wait for resolution
Polymarket markets resolve at expiry. Winning Yes shares pay $1 each, losing pay $0.
⚠️ Research signals only — not financial advice. See disclaimer.
All ✓ Resolved ⏳ Open sports politics geopolitical finance crypto other
3 signals · sorted by resolution date
↑ YES ✗ LOST news 📊 other Apr 12 · 08:43 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

US ships transited Hormuz for mine-clearing [487]; Iran can't find own mines [486]; Trump: reopen soon w/ talks [506]. Positive developments boost P(normal by Apr30).

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.165
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
25.5%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$3,242
↑ YES ✗ LOST edge 📊 other Apr 25 · 14:22 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Calibration model puts YES at 67.3% vs market 1.6% — 65.8% drift after isotonic correction of original raw 42.0%.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.016
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
65.8%
mispricing
Bots 🎯 -$800
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale 📊 other Apr 10 · 14:20 UTC
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?

Whale imbalance 0.62 towards YES; thin top orderbook (bids 0.08@0, asks 0.09@0); no news

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.085
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
14.2%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$2,500