polysignals.dev
Updated in real time

Signal feed

Free tier — rationale and fair value blurred. Upgrade to Pro →

Unlock full rationale
How to act on a signal — 30-second guide
1
Open Polymarket
Click "Trade on Polymarket" on any signal card to jump directly to the market.
2
Buy at or below entry
Signal says entry 0.34? Buy Yes shares at ≤ $0.34. Above that, the edge shrinks.
3
Size with Kelly
Kelly 5% with a $1,000 bankroll = risk $50 on this trade. Never exceed the Kelly fraction.
4
Wait for resolution
Polymarket markets resolve at expiry. Winning Yes shares pay $1 each, losing pay $0.
⚠️ Research signals only — not financial advice. See disclaimer.
All ✓ Resolved ⏳ Open sports politics geopolitical finance crypto other
16 signals · sorted by resolution date
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale 🌍 geopolitical Apr 10 · 14:56 UTC
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Whale imbalance 0.642 amid thin orderbook (top bids/asks @0) suggests informed YES-side pressure; no news, long-dated market.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.195
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
11.6%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$989 ⚖️ -$1,374 🛡️ -$1,847
↑ YES ✓ WON whale 🌍 geopolitical Apr 10 · 13:24 UTC
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Whale-driven bid imbalance 0.768 on thin book (bids 0.110@0, asks 0.120@0); no recent news.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.115
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
14.0%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 +$10,297 ⚖️ +$11,445 🛡️ +$19,239
↓ NO ✗ LOST whale 🌍 geopolitical Apr 10 · 14:57 UTC
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Orderbook imbalance -0.778 indicates heavy ask-side pressure, likely whale selling YES amid thin top-of-book sizes.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.914
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
11.9%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$2,500
↑ YES ✗ LOST news 🌍 geopolitical Apr 10 · 14:21 UTC
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Recent reports of 32h Easter ceasefire (Al Jazeera [3], BBC [4]) & potential peace deal (Reuters [1]); slight bullish signal but temporary, not full CF.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.051
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
14.9%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$2,500
↓ NO ✓ WON news 🌍 geopolitical Apr 10 · 14:35 UTC
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Recent news of US-Iran ceasefire ([34],[41]) and de-escalation (Trump urges Israel low-key [31]) indicate regime stability, reinforcing low YES prob.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.971
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
13.8%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 +$41 ⚖️ +$45 🛡️ +$76
↑ YES ✓ WON whale 🌍 geopolitical Apr 12 · 04:50 UTC
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Orderbook imbalance 0.783 shows strong bid pressure, indicating potential informed whale buying on YES vs market price 20.5%

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.205
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
6.5%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 +$2,070 ⚖️ +$2,875 🛡️ +$6,687
Bots 🔥 +$992 ⚖️ +$1,378 🛡️ +$3,205
↑ YES ✗ LOST edge 🌍 geopolitical Apr 12 · 01:47 UTC
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?

Long 18mo horizon favors eventual de-escalation; current 9.5% price overly pessimistic amid escalations but ignores political shifts (e.g., US election).

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.095
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
8.5%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,323 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$4,274
Bots 🔥 +$37 ⚖️ +$41 🛡️ +$69
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$2,500
Bots 🔥 +$3 ⚖️ +$4 🛡️ +$6
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale 🌍 geopolitical Apr 10 · 14:54 UTC
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?

Whale imbalance 0.915 indicates strong YES-side pressure in thin book (liq $43k, top sizes 0); market price 0.0035 extreme low pulled toward 0.5.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.004
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
17.4%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$2,500
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale 🌍 geopolitical Apr 10 · 14:54 UTC
Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026?

Whale imbalance 0.727 shows strong YES-side orderbook pressure despite ultra-low market price.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.004
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
17.4%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$2,500
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale 🌍 geopolitical Apr 10 · 14:40 UTC
Military action against Iran ends on April 14, 2026?

Whale imbalance 0.613 on thin $25k book w/ yes_price 0.0015; suggests undervaluation on specific low-prob event.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.002
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.3%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$2,500
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale 🌍 geopolitical Apr 10 · 14:48 UTC
Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026?

Strong YES bid imbalance (0.911) on thin orderbook ($29k liq); no news or criteria provided.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.004
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.1%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$2,500
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale 🌍 geopolitical Apr 10 · 14:01 UTC
Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026?

Whale imbalance 0.866 indicates strong YES-side orderbook pressure despite thin top-of-book (depth 0) and ultra-low price; no news.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.010
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
15.4%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$2,500