polysignals.dev
Updated in real time

Signal feed

Free tier — rationale and fair value blurred. Upgrade to Pro →

Unlock full rationale
How to act on a signal — 30-second guide
1
Open Polymarket
Click "Trade on Polymarket" on any signal card to jump directly to the market.
2
Buy at or below entry
Signal says entry 0.34? Buy Yes shares at ≤ $0.34. Above that, the edge shrinks.
3
Size with Kelly
Kelly 5% with a $1,000 bankroll = risk $50 on this trade. Never exceed the Kelly fraction.
4
Wait for resolution
Polymarket markets resolve at expiry. Winning Yes shares pay $1 each, losing pay $0.
⚠️ Research signals only — not financial advice. See disclaimer.
All ✓ Resolved ⏳ Open sports politics geopolitical finance crypto other
13 signals · sorted by resolution date
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale 💰 finance Apr 10 · 14:07 UTC
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Whale imbalance of 0.82 favors YES at ultra-low price of 0.0025; thin long-term evidence, market price as baseline pulled slightly toward 0.5.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.003
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.9%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$2,500
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale 💰 finance Apr 10 · 14:56 UTC
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Orderbook imbalance 0.82 favors YES bids (whale_imbalance trigger), suggesting accumulation despite low 0.0025 price & long-term unlikelihood.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.003
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
18.2%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$2,500
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale 💰 finance Apr 11 · 18:50 UTC
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Orderbook imbalance 0.913 indicates strong bid-side pressure (informed buying); true P(50+ bps Fed cut Apr 2026) ~5% >> market 0.35%; irrelevant news.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.004
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
4.6%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 🛡️ -$4,323
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale 💰 finance Apr 10 · 14:58 UTC
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Extreme orderbook imbalance (0.980) indicates heavy bid-side liquidity, suggesting whale pressure on YES despite ultra-low price & high liquidity ($498k). Thin news; long-dated event.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.005
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.0%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$2,500
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale 💰 finance Apr 10 · 14:12 UTC
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Whale imbalance 0.986 (heavy yes bids) at ultra-low price 0.0045; thin book but trigger indicates potential undervaluation for long-term Fed cut market.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.005
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.0%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$2,500
↓ NO ✓ WON whale 💰 finance Apr 10 · 14:12 UTC
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Extreme orderbook imbalance 0.960 indicates whale pressure on NO; thin liquidity at edges, market prices tail risk of distant Fed hike low, pulled toward 0.5 per calibration

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.993
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
17.0%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 +$10 ⚖️ +$11 🛡️ +$19
Bots 🎯 +$800
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale 💰 finance Apr 10 · 14:12 UTC
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Extreme bid imbalance (0.993) signals whale buying YES at 0.85%; far-future (2026) thin evidence, price pulled toward 0.5 per calibration.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.009
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.9%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$2,500
↓ NO ✓ WON whale 💰 finance Apr 10 · 13:25 UTC
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Whale imbalance of 0.956 on thin top-of-book pushes YES to 0.0075; long-term market with 320k liq reflects low cut prob, no counter news.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.993
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.4%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 +$10 ⚖️ +$11 🛡️ +$19
↓ NO ✗ LOST edge 💰 finance Apr 11 · 19:13 UTC
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Distant Apr 2026 FOMC (~1yr out); 98% overconfident given economic/geopolitical uncertainty & black swans; hist hold rates ~80-90% per mtg but future discount needed

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.018
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
6.2%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$4,323
↓ NO ✗ LOST whale 💰 finance Apr 10 · 14:44 UTC
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Whale imbalance -0.604 indicates YES selling pressure. Fed Mar minutes show openness to hikes [32,33,43]; ceasefire [41] mitigates but data pending (CPI). Market overprices no-change.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.020
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
17.9%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$2,500
Bots 🔥 +$9 ⚖️ +$10 🛡️ +$16
↑ YES ✗ LOST whale 💰 finance Apr 10 · 13:25 UTC
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Extreme orderbook imbalance (0.991) on YES bids indicates whale accumulation, potential undervaluation vs market price of 0.45%; long-dated tail risk pulled toward 50.

Trade on Polymarket
Entry
i
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.005
market price
Edge
i
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
18.4%
mispricing
Bots 🔥 -$1,338 ⚖️ -$1,487 🛡️ -$2,500