Calibration model puts NO at 2.0% vs market 50.0% — 48.0% drift after isotonic correction of original raw 5.0%.
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Distant Apr 2026 FOMC (~1yr out); 98% overconfident given economic/geopolitical uncertainty & black swans; hist hold rates ~80-90% per mtg but future discount needed
Trade on PolymarketOrderbook imbalance 0.913 indicates strong bid-side pressure (informed buying); true P(50+ bps Fed cut Apr 2026) ~5% >> market 0.35%; irrelevant news.
Trade on PolymarketExtreme orderbook imbalance (0.980) indicates heavy bid-side liquidity, suggesting whale pressure on YES despite ultra-low price & high liquidity ($498k). Thin news; long-dated event.
Trade on PolymarketOrderbook imbalance 0.82 favors YES bids (whale_imbalance trigger), suggesting accumulation despite low 0.0025 price & long-term unlikelihood.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance -0.604 indicates YES selling pressure. Fed Mar minutes show openness to hikes [32,33,43]; ceasefire [41] mitigates but data pending (CPI). Market overprices no-change.
Trade on PolymarketExtreme orderbook imbalance 0.960 indicates whale pressure on NO; thin liquidity at edges, market prices tail risk of distant Fed hike low, pulled toward 0.5 per calibration
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance 0.986 (heavy yes bids) at ultra-low price 0.0045; thin book but trigger indicates potential undervaluation for long-term Fed cut market.
Trade on PolymarketExtreme bid imbalance (0.993) signals whale buying YES at 0.85%; far-future (2026) thin evidence, price pulled toward 0.5 per calibration.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance of 0.82 favors YES at ultra-low price of 0.0025; thin long-term evidence, market price as baseline pulled slightly toward 0.5.
Trade on PolymarketExtreme orderbook imbalance (0.991) on YES bids indicates whale accumulation, potential undervaluation vs market price of 0.45%; long-dated tail risk pulled toward 50.
Trade on PolymarketWhale imbalance of 0.956 on thin top-of-book pushes YES to 0.0075; long-term market with 320k liq reflects low cut prob, no counter news.
Trade on PolymarketWhale-triggered extreme orderbook imbalance (0.984); YES at 0.65%; no news; thin evidence for 2026 Fed hike.
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