Step 1 of 3

What is Polymarket?

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market. People bet real money on yes/no questions — who wins the election, will this bill pass, what price will Bitcoin hit?

The market price of a "Yes" share directly reflects crowd probability. If Yes trades at $0.35, the crowd thinks 35% chance it happens. When the event resolves, Yes shares pay $1 (win) or $0 (lose).

Example

YES share
$0.35
crowd says 35%
→
if event happens
$1.00
+$0.65 profit
/
if it doesn't
$0.00
-$0.35 loss

Step 2 of 3

We find mispriced bets

Our AI reads every active Polymarket question continuously. When the crowd price meaningfully differs from our calibrated probability estimate — that gap is called an edge.

We publish a signal telling you exactly: what to buy, at what price, and how much to risk.

↑ YES

Will the Fed cut rates before September?

Entry

0.342

market price

Edge

+8.5%

mispricing

Fair P̂

0.427

AI estimate

Market prices YES at 34.2%. We estimate true probability is 42.7%. That 8.5% gap is the edge — buy Yes, target $1 payout.

Step 3 of 3

Audit it before you pay

Four AI bots bet $10,000 of paper money on every signal — in real time, publicly visible. Every signal is also timestamped on-chain before the market resolves.

Browse the scoreboard, watch the bots, read the signal history. No credit card until you're convinced.

Watch $10k paper portfolios betting in real time

12 bots predicting BTC price on 5m–4h intervals

Brier-scored accuracy on every resolved signal

polysignals.dev

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Signal feed

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▶ How to act on a signal — 30-second guide

1

Open Polymarket

Click "Trade on Polymarket" on any signal card to jump directly to the market.

2

Buy at or below entry

Signal says entry 0.34? Buy Yes shares at ≤ $0.34. Above that, the edge shrinks.

3

Size with Kelly

Kelly 5% with a $1,000 bankroll = risk $50 on this trade. Never exceed the Kelly fraction.

4

Wait for resolution

Polymarket markets resolve at expiry. Winning Yes shares pay $1 each, losing pay $0.

⚠️ Research signals only — not financial advice. See disclaimer.

All ✓ Resolved ⏳ Open sports politics geopolitical finance crypto other ✕

📡

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