Market at 0.15% vs realistic ~80% prob given BTC's long-term bullish trend, halving cycles, and historical growth; 76k in Apr 2026 not ambitious from current levels.
Trade on Polymarket▶ How to act on a signal — 30-second guide
1
Open Polymarket
Click "Trade on Polymarket" on any signal card to jump directly to the market.
2
Buy at or below entry
Signal says entry 0.34? Buy Yes shares at ≤ $0.34. Above that, the edge shrinks.
3
Size with Kelly
Kelly 5% with a $1,000 bankroll = risk $50 on this trade. Never exceed the Kelly fraction.
4
Wait for resolution
Polymarket markets resolve at expiry. Winning Yes shares pay $1 each, losing pay $0.
⚠️ Research signals only — not financial advice. See disclaimer.
6 signals
·
sorted by newest
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 12?
Entry
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.002
market price
Edge
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
81.8%
mispricing
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?
Whale imbalance 0.715 on thin orderbook (bids 0.004@0, asks 0.005@0); market at 0.45% undervalues BTC 150k potential in April 2025/26 bull cycle.
Trade on Polymarket
Entry
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.005
market price
Edge
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.0%
mispricing
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?
Whale sell imbalance (-0.706) on thin book (0 depth top5) pushes yes to 1.75%; market extreme low pulled toward 0.5 per calibration; no news.
Trade on Polymarket
Entry
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.983
market price
Edge
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
15.4%
mispricing
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?
Whale imbalance 0.717 shows strong YES buy pressure; market price 0.0045 extremely low, thin orderbook (bids 0.004@0, asks 0.005@0)
Trade on Polymarket
Entry
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.005
market price
Edge
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
16.0%
mispricing
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?
Whale imbalance 0.734 favoring YES; thin orderbook (bids 0.200@0, asks 0.210@0); no news.
Trade on Polymarket
Entry
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.205
market price
Edge
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
10.6%
mispricing
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?
Heavy ask imbalance (-0.705) on thin top-of-book indicates whale selling YES, increased bearish pressure vs market price of 1.75%
Trade on Polymarket
Entry
The Yes share price when this signal fired. Buy at or below this price for the edge to hold.
0.983
market price
Edge
How underpriced we believe this bet is. Edge = |P̂ − entry|. We only publish if ≥ 3%.
14.7%
mispricing