Live · Calibration Hunter strategy

🎯 Calibration Hunter live

Math-based: re-runs raw LLM probabilities through the nightly isotonic calibration model. Fires when the calibrated probability still disagrees with market price by ≥6%. The thesis: the market hasn't yet absorbed corrections that the calibration model has.

Bankroll

$10000

+$0.00 +0.0% vs $10000 start

Record

        1W / 1L
      

50% win rate

Open Bets

0

      peak $10800
    

Bankroll curve

2 settled · green = win · red = loss

💡

Performance insight

1 win averaging $0 net gain. Kelly sizing means wins pay out asymmetrically — a signal bought at 0.20 returns 4× on a correct call. The model targets edge, not frequency.

Today's bets

Positions opened & settled today

      
      live
    

⏳

No bets placed yet today

The bot fires the moment a new signal is published.

Short-term bets

Markets resolving within 30 days

≤ 30 days

Settled

1W / 1L

Win rate

50%

P&L

        +$0.00
      

Open positions 2

Market	Dir	Resolves	Entry	Edge	Stake	Max Win
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	↓ NO	Jul 01	0.840	7.7%	$600	+$115
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	↓ NO	Jul 01	0.873	8.6%	$800	+$117

Recently settled

Date	Market	Dir	Entry	Stake	P&L	Result
May 12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	↑ YES	0.016	$800	$-800.00	✗ LOST
Apr 29	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April …	↓ NO	0.500	$800	+$800.00	✓ WON

Long-term bets

Markets resolving in 30+ days

30+ days

Open positions 0

No open long-term positions.

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Paper money only — no real funds at risk. Disclaimer